Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Bleak 2Q21 results<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Bleak 2Q21 resultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ) - Bleak 2Q21 results

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Currently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a> debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/999/original/image_59574917191615277295474.png?1615277295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192999"></figure><div class="content-remarks">source: Capital IQ</div>At the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well.

Currently, Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ) debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. source: Capital IQAt the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well. 

Jasa Marga (JSMR): High Debt and Fully Valued

The fee increase, traffic recovery, and potential (still) low contribution from the construction business due to the pandemic are the three key elements that will drive the share price even higher for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a> . Traffic recovery is an important piece of the puzzle that will bring PER lower and makes Jasa Marga optically not that pricey compared to the peers. With an expected low CAPEX in 2021, the company's blended margin will be as good as 2020 and not revert back to the level from previous years. Another future catalyst, although the timing is yet unclear, is the spin-off of the construction division then Jasa Marga will be a high-margin toll road operator that could potentially pay some higher dividend too.

The fee increase, traffic recovery, and potential (still) low contribution from the construction business due to the pandemic are the three key elements that will drive the share price even higher for Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ) . Traffic recovery is an important piece of the puzzle that will bring PER lower and makes Jasa Marga optically not that pricey compared to the peers. With an expected low CAPEX in 2021, the company's blended margin will be as good as 2020 and not revert back to the level from previous years. Another future catalyst, although the timing is yet unclear, is the spin-off of the construction division then Jasa Marga will be a high-margin toll road operator that could potentially pay some higher dividend too. 

Jasa Marga (JSMR):Recovery Play and Low Capex

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pp-london-sumatra-indones-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9039:1" rel="noopener">Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ)</a>, while stocks that could be deleted from the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/summarecon-agung-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5693:1" rel="noopener">Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>.Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ), while stocks that could be deleted from the index are Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ), Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ).Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

Indonesia

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk is an integrated engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), and investment company. It provides civil construction services, including roads, bridges, harbors, airports, and dams, along with building construction, energy and industrial plant development, and real estate. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1960.

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Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas