Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global NOR Flash #1 (23% share) with ASIL-D automotive certification; Cube 3DCaaS AI DRAM programme targets unoccupied price/performance tier between commodity DRAM and HBM — real optionality but pre-revenue.</li>
<li>NT$40–42bn FY2026 capex (2x step-up) guarantees deeply negative FCF; Altman Z-Score 1.4 below the 1.8 distress threshold; leverage concern is real if ASPs moderate in H2.</li>
<li>SELL, NT$185 PT (blended EV/EBITDA/P/B–ROE/DCF); upgrade to BUY if share price retracts to NT$140–150 entry — Kaohsiung ramp + Cube optionality priced for failure at that level.</li>
</ul>


Global NOR Flash #1 (23% share) with ASIL-D automotive certification; Cube 3DCaaS AI DRAM programme targets unoccupied price/performance tier between commodity DRAM and HBM — real optionality but pre-revenue.
NT$40–42bn FY2026 capex (2x step-up) guarantees deeply negative FCF; Altman Z-Score 1.4 below the 1.8 distress threshold; leverage concern is real if ASPs moderate in H2.
SELL, NT$185 PT (blended EV/EBITDA/P/B–ROE/DCF); upgrade to BUY if share price retracts to NT$140–150 entry — Kaohsiung ramp + Cube optionality priced for failure at that level.


WINBOND ELECTRONICS (2344 TW): Initiate with a SELL (TP NT$185)

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>On June 5 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> has been added to the constituents of the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF.</li>
<li>As many other Asian tech stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> has experienced a large (-22%) drop in values since its peak on June 3rd.</li>
<li>
<strong>The selloff has handed passive trackers a cheaper entry</strong> — but the real question is <strong>how much downside remains if selling pressure persists?</strong>
</li>
</ul>


On June 5 Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) has been added to the constituents of the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF.
As many other Asian tech stocks, Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) has experienced a large (-22%) drop in values since its peak on June 3rd.

The selloff has handed passive trackers a cheaper entry — but the real question is how much downside remains if selling pressure persists?



Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) Tactical Outlook After Inclusion in Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> should be added to a global index in February and then to a country index in March.</li>
<li>With one exception, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last 5 months. With passive buying to come, outperformance could continue in the short-term.</li>
<li>There is positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> and in its peers. With continued momentum in the stock, the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>



Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) should be added to a global index in February and then to a country index in March.
With one exception, Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) has outperformed its peers over the last 5 months. With passive buying to come, outperformance could continue in the short-term.
There is positioning in Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) and in its peers. With continued momentum in the stock, the path of least resistance is higher.


Winbond Electronics (2344 TT): Two Index Inclusions in Quick Succession

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest was USD41.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, MediaTek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest was USD41.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, MediaTek.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, MediaTek

Taiwan

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

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Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)

WINBOND ELECTRONICS (2344 TW): Initiate with a SELL (TP NT$185)

Global NOR Flash leader with automotive certification, targeting new market, capex increase raises leverage concerns, sell rating with potential...

Mo Aziz