New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.</li><li>Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.</li><li>We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.</li></ul>

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

<ul><li>Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.</li><li>Average selling prices per units increased +4% on the prior year due to a higher value sales mix of the units settled.</li><li>Northbrook opened its first village in May 2025 at stage 1 of Wanaka (32 residences) with central facilities to be opened by the end of the year.</li></ul>

Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.Average selling prices per units increased +4% on the prior year due to a higher value sales mix of the units settled.Northbrook opened its first village in May 2025 at stage 1 of Wanaka (32 residences) with central facilities to be opened by the end of the year.

Winton (WIN): FY25 Result – Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.</li><li>We do not expect any major surprises with rental growth fixed, occupancy stable, and interest costs falling.</li><li>This should support the continued re-rate towards net tangible assets (currently at a -17% discount).</li></ul>

The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.We do not expect any major surprises with rental growth fixed, occupancy stable, and interest costs falling.This should support the continued re-rate towards net tangible assets (currently at a -17% discount).

Real Estate Reflections Another Step Forward

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a> IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. </li>
<li>The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  </li>
</ul>


The Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  


AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

<ul><li>Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.</li><li>The first residents will move into Northbrook, Wanaka in 2H25, though construction starts at other villages have been delayed.</li><li>Larger near-term hospitality losses and a slower Northbrook build-out have led us to push forecasts out by 12 months. </li></ul>

Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.The first residents will move into Northbrook, Wanaka in 2H25, though construction starts at other villages have been delayed.Larger near-term hospitality losses and a slower Northbrook build-out have led us to push forecasts out by 12 months. 

Winton Land - 1H25—Hospitality Costs, Northbrook Delays

New Zealand

Winton Land Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company develops resident lots, dwellings, apartments, and retirement units. Winton Land serves customers in New Zealand.

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Winton Land Ltd (WIN NZ)

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.

Forsyth Barr

Winton (WIN): FY25 Result – Initial Thoughts

Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Another Step Forward

The listed property sector had another strong month in July with a broad based lift in share prices.We do not expect any major surprises with...

Forsyth Barr

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

This is a done deal as the largest shareholder is supportive. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.

Arun George

Winton Land - 1H25—Hospitality Costs, Northbrook Delays

Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.

Forsyth Barr

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