New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.</li><li>Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.</li><li>In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.</li></ul>

March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.

<ul><li>The housing market picks up from slow start to the year (REINZ, Feb.): National sales up +22.2% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously -33.5%) but are +0.3% yoy (previously -1.9%).</li><li>Rents remain under pressure (Trade Me, Feb.): Median rents -3.1% yoy with the largest declines in Marlborough (-5.8%), Gisborne (-4.4%), Otago (-3.3%), and Wellington (-3%).</li><li>Metro Performance Glass (MPG) trading update: MPG expect revenue c.-9% below previous guidance on the back of lower volumes and pricing pressures.</li></ul>

The housing market picks up from slow start to the year (REINZ, Feb.): National sales up +22.2% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously -33.5%) but are +0.3% yoy (previously -1.9%).Rents remain under pressure (Trade Me, Feb.): Median rents -3.1% yoy with the largest declines in Marlborough (-5.8%), Gisborne (-4.4%), Otago (-3.3%), and Wellington (-3%).Metro Performance Glass (MPG) trading update: MPG expect revenue c.-9% below previous guidance on the back of lower volumes and pricing pressures.

<ul><li>The listed property sector continued its poor start to the year in February, down another -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -4.5%.</li><li>Net asset values and balance sheet gearing were largely stable.</li><li>The current discount to NTA is -21% compared to its long-run average of -1%.</li></ul>

The listed property sector continued its poor start to the year in February, down another -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -4.5%.Net asset values and balance sheet gearing were largely stable.The current discount to NTA is -21% compared to its long-run average of -1%.

Real Estate Reflections - Weak Share Prices, Stable Fundamentals

<ul><li>The listed property sector finished 2025 up +13%, outperforming the broader NZ market by c.10%.</li><li>The sector is now trading on a -14% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), a gross yield of 7.5% or +300bp spread to long bond rates, and an AFFO multiple of 19x.</li><li>The listed property sector fell -1% in December, underperforming the broader market which was up +0.4%.</li></ul>

The listed property sector finished 2025 up +13%, outperforming the broader NZ market by c.10%.The sector is now trading on a -14% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), a gross yield of 7.5% or +300bp spread to long bond rates, and an AFFO multiple of 19x.The listed property sector fell -1% in December, underperforming the broader market which was up +0.4%.

Real Estate Reflections A Strong Year in Property

<ul><li>Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.</li><li>We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.</li><li>The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.</li></ul>

Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.

New Zealand

Winton Land Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company develops resident lots, dwellings, apartments, and retirement units. Winton Land serves customers in New Zealand.

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Winton Land Ltd (WIN NZ)

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