Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Huaqin Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48099:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin (3296 HK)</a>'s leadership position in the smart product ODM platform business is an important strength, with 3-year EPS CAGR forecast at 22.8%.</li>
<li>At a maximum IPO price of HK$77.70, it is priced at 13.7x FY26 PER. Relative to an average of 13.2x for global peers, it is not particularly cheap.</li>
<li>It should trade at a premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-longcheer-technology-co-ltd-64676fe9-6624-4553-a2d4-3e9ecf3a5d6e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46338:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Longcheer (9611 HK)</a> though. At a 20-25% discount to A-share, Huaqin's H-share is valued at HK$84.70-90.70 (15-16x FY26 PER).</li>
</ul>



Huaqin (3296 HK)'s leadership position in the smart product ODM platform business is an important strength, with 3-year EPS CAGR forecast at 22.8%.
At a maximum IPO price of HK$77.70, it is priced at 13.7x FY26 PER. Relative to an average of 13.2x for global peers, it is not particularly cheap.
It should trade at a premium to Shanghai Longcheer (9611 HK) though. At a 20-25% discount to A-share, Huaqin's H-share is valued at HK$84.70-90.70 (15-16x FY26 PER).


Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48099:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin (3296 HK)</a>, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huaqin-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:229484" rel="noopener">Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>Given my previously discussed bearish investment case and the unattractive AH discount, I would avoid the H Share listing. </li>
</ul>



Huaqin (3296 HK), the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
Given my previously discussed bearish investment case and the unattractive AH discount, I would avoid the H Share listing. 


Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Taiwan's March 2026 monthly sales, covering our universe of about 150 supply-chain names, show revenue up +46% aggegate sales growth YoY, one of the strongest months of the current cycle.</li>
<li>The strongest pockets are where AI hardware buildout flows: Memory +196%, AI Server ODMs +57%, Electronic Components +60%, TSMC +45%, successive layers of the same AI-capex wave.</li>
<li>The chain is bifurcated. Display, Analog, and PC names are flat; ASIC design-service names are down. One cannot treat the AI supply chain as one block.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan's March 2026 monthly sales, covering our universe of about 150 supply-chain names, show revenue up +46% aggegate sales growth YoY, one of the strongest months of the current cycle.
The strongest pockets are where AI hardware buildout flows: Memory +196%, AI Server ODMs +57%, Electronic Components +60%, TSMC +45%, successive layers of the same AI-capex wave.
The chain is bifurcated. Display, Analog, and PC names are flat; ASIC design-service names are down. One cannot treat the AI supply chain as one block.


Where the AI & Semi Supply Chain Is Actually Flowing: Bottom-Up Read From Taiwan's March Sales Data

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Taiwan

Wistron Corporation manufactures and markets notebook computers, personal computers, and other related information products.

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Wistron Corp (3231 TT)

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Where the AI & Semi Supply Chain Is Actually Flowing: Bottom-Up Read From Taiwan's March Sales Data

Taiwan's March 2026 sales show strong growth in AI hardware sectors, with Memory up 196% and TSMC up 45%. The supply chain is sharply bifurcated,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

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Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin Co., Ltd (3296 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive, at Best

​Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights

Huaqin, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million. In this...

Arun George

Where the AI & Semi Supply Chain Is Actually Flowing: Bottom-Up Read From Taiwan's March Sales Data

​Taiwan's March 2026 sales show strong growth in AI hardware sectors, with Memory up 196% and TSMC up 45%. The supply chain is sharply bifurcated,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Huaqin is a smart product ODM platform leader with strong EPS growth, but its IPO price is not cheap compared to global peers. At 20-25% discount...

Taiwan's March 2026 sales show strong growth in AI hardware sectors, with Memory up 196% and TSMC up 45%. The supply chain is sharply bifurcated,...