Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

<ul>
<li>Wizz Air's FY24 contained multiple distortions; we disaggregate cash flow dynamics to show an improving picture.</li>
<li>Capacity restraint has been enforced by engine issues, not zero growth in FY25 is producing high single-digit % unit revenue gains.</li>
<li>We see an opportunity for Wizz Air to rise above distortion to earnings from engine issues and compensation by providing incremental cash flow clarity.</li>
</ul>


Wizz Air's FY24 contained multiple distortions; we disaggregate cash flow dynamics to show an improving picture.
Capacity restraint has been enforced by engine issues, not zero growth in FY25 is producing high single-digit % unit revenue gains.
We see an opportunity for Wizz Air to rise above distortion to earnings from engine issues and compensation by providing incremental cash flow clarity.


Wizz Air - Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity

<ul>
<li>Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.</li>
<li>This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.</li>
<li>We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.</li>
</ul>


Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.
This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.
We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.


European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

<ul>
<li>Wizz Air held guidance for FY24 to March 2024, or net income of €350m-€400m, but only due to compensation from Pratt &amp; Whitney.</li>
<li>With no capacity growth in FY25 to March 2025, and costs apparently under control, Wizz Air should be able to drive significant earnings improvements.</li>
<li>Wizz Air seems set to receive over €200m in P&amp;W compensation for aircraft groundings in 4Q24 to March; read across for other airlines operating grounded GTFs.</li>
</ul>


Wizz Air held guidance for FY24 to March 2024, or net income of €350m-€400m, but only due to compensation from Pratt &amp; Whitney.
With no capacity growth in FY25 to March 2025, and costs apparently under control, Wizz Air should be able to drive significant earnings improvements.
Wizz Air seems set to receive over €200m in P&amp;W compensation for aircraft groundings in 4Q24 to March; read across for other airlines operating grounded GTFs.


Wizz Air - Distortion Continues but Conditions Favourable to Pass Key Summer Test

United Kingdom

Wizz Air is an ultra-low-cost airline group providing passenger air transportation services, primarily operating scheduled short-haul and medium-haul point-to-point routes across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Northwest Asia. The company focuses on maximizing aircraft utilization and offering unbundled pricing. Wizz Air was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Budapest, Hungary.

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Wizz Air (WIZZ LN)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Wizz Air - Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity

A deep dive into the complicated dynamics of Wizz Air's cash flow generation as it digests engine issues, compensation, and aircraft sale and...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

Wizz Air - Distortion Continues but Conditions Favourable to Pass Key Summer Test

Deep dive on true underlying earnings of Wizz Air. Insight into GTF compensation from Pratt & Whitney applicable to impacted airlines

Neil Glynn

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