Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Focus is on rotation from semi leveraged ETFs, about KRW 700bn to 1tn in 5 days, mainly cannibalizing KODEX and TIGER which proxy Samsung and Hynix leverage.</li>
<li>Better trade is smaller names, not Samsung or Hynix. Futures likely take heavy sell pressure post listing, driving outsized basis blowout and spot futures dislocation versus turnover.</li>
<li>Screen names are Hanmi, Leeno, Wonik IPS, EO Technics, ISC. Expect 1 to 1.3x futures sell flow. Play via cash shorts or basis on backwardation.</li>
</ul>


Focus is on rotation from semi leveraged ETFs, about KRW 700bn to 1tn in 5 days, mainly cannibalizing KODEX and TIGER which proxy Samsung and Hynix leverage.
Better trade is smaller names, not Samsung or Hynix. Futures likely take heavy sell pressure post listing, driving outsized basis blowout and spot futures dislocation versus turnover.
Screen names are Hanmi, Leeno, Wonik IPS, EO Technics, ISC. Expect 1 to 1.3x futures sell flow. Play via cash shorts or basis on backwardation.


Flow Cannibalization Trade Setup Around Samsung and Hynix Leveraged ETF Listings

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated holding was USD1,239.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD4,094mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KorZinc, SamsungElecMech, Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated holding was USD1,239.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD4,094mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KorZinc, SamsungElecMech, Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 10th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KorZinc, SamsungElecMech

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>TIGER signaled via local channels yesterday they’ll stick to methodology and proceed with the April 10 rebalance, effectively locking in the adds/drops.</li>
<li>March screening: 44 MKF500 semi names ranked by avg daily mcap for top 10. ISC in / Dongjin out is locked; no red flags for ISC.</li>
<li>Passive flow estimates: ETF &gt;KRW 8tn AUM. ISC/Dongjin show super chunky flows; Hynix 25% cap reset drives smaller-cap inflows. These under-owned names may see sharp moves.</li>
</ul>


TIGER signaled via local channels yesterday they’ll stick to methodology and proceed with the April 10 rebalance, effectively locking in the adds/drops.
March screening: 44 MKF500 semi names ranked by avg daily mcap for top 10. ISC in / Dongjin out is locked; no red flags for ISC.
Passive flow estimates: ETF &gt;KRW 8tn AUM. ISC/Dongjin show super chunky flows; Hynix 25% cap reset drives smaller-cap inflows. These under-owned names may see sharp moves.


TIGER Confirmed It Will Run the April 10 FnGuide Top 10 Semis Rebalance Strictly by the Book

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance almost complete, we forecast 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-fn-semiconductor-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36845:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 (396500 KS)</a>'s AUM has topped US$5.5bn and the ETF will need to trade a VERY significant portion of float for the add/delete.</li>
<li>The forecast add has outperformed the forecast delete by 50% over the last month but positioning does not appear to be stretched in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance almost complete, we forecast 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 (396500 KS)'s AUM has topped US$5.5bn and the ETF will need to trade a VERY significant portion of float for the add/delete.
The forecast add has outperformed the forecast delete by 50% over the last month but positioning does not appear to be stretched in the stocks.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: VERY Significant Impact for the Changes

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance starting in one week, we forecast 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-fn-semiconductor-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36845:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF (396500 KS)</a>'s AUM has soared over the last few months to top US$4bn and that increases the flow and impact. </li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 3.4-4x ADV to trade in the forecast changes. Plus, a big impact due to the funding trade.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance starting in one week, we forecast 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF (396500 KS)'s AUM has soared over the last few months to top US$4bn and that increases the flow and impact. 
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 3.4-4x ADV to trade in the forecast changes. Plus, a big impact due to the funding trade.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Soaring AUM Increases Flow & Impact

South Korea

Wonik IPS Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells semiconductor processing equipments.  The Company's main businesses include Semiconductor, Display and Solar industries.

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Wonik Ips (240810 KS)

Flow Cannibalization Trade Setup Around Samsung and Hynix Leveraged ETF Listings

This post examines the trading angle around flow cannibalization dynamics driven by the listing of Samsung and Hynix leveraged ETFs.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 10th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KorZinc, SamsungElecMech

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, KorZinc,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TIGER Confirmed It Will Run the April 10 FnGuide Top 10 Semis Rebalance Strictly by the Book

TIGER has confirmed that it will carry out the April 10 FnGuide Top 10 Semis rebalance strictly according to the standard methodology.

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: VERY Significant Impact for the Changes

ISC could replace Dongjin Semi in the FnGuide Semi Top10 Index. AUM exceeds US$5.6bn and the ETF will need to trade a VERY significant % of float...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Soaring AUM Increases Flow & Impact

ETF AUM has crossed US$4bn and that increases flow and impact for the one set of forecast changes in April. Capping outflows for Hynix and Sammy...

Brian Freitas

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