Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain extends the TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. This still needs a bump.</li>
<li>I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>: arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.</li>
</ul>


Bain extends the TOB for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). This still needs a bump.
I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.
Re: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Although we continue to believe that crude oil prices are well below the levels required to incentivize sufficient investment to meet demand beyond 2017, we are reducing our long-term price outlook by $5 per barrel to $70 Brent and $64 WTI to reflect bearish developments in recent quarters in the outlook for low-cost supply and industrywide cost deflation.While $5 represents a relatively small adjustment to our long-term oil price assumption, we are also adjusting our near-term activity and pricing forecasts to reflect our belief that industry oversupply is making it very likely that crude markets will not approach any semblance of normalcy until 2017.Taken together, these changes have a meaningful impact on a handful of our energy sector fair value estimates, particularly firms that currently employ large amounts of leverage.&nbsp;We are beginning to publish new fair value estimates today, and all companies will be live two weeks from today.Analyst: Mark TaylorSector Head: Mathew HodgeFull report below the fold....

Although we continue to believe that crude oil prices are well below the levels required to incentivize sufficient investment to meet demand beyond 2017, we are reducing our long-term price outlook by $5 per barrel to $70 Brent and $64 WTI to reflect bearish developments in recent quarters in the outlook for low-cost supply and industrywide cost deflation.While $5 represents a relatively small adjustment to our long-term oil price assumption, we are also adjusting our near-term activity and pricing forecasts to reflect our belief that industry oversupply is making it very likely that crude markets will not approach any semblance of normalcy until 2017.Taken together, these changes have a meaningful impact on a handful of our energy sector fair value estimates, particularly firms that currently employ large amounts of leverage.&nbsp;We are beginning to publish new fair value estimates today, and all companies will be live two weeks from today.Analyst: Mark TaylorSector Head: Mathew HodgeFull report below the fold....

Oil Price Outlook: All Signs Point to a Brutal Near-Term and a Meaningful Long-Term Recovery

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.</li></ul><ul><li>In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.</li><li>Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.</li></ul>

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 16th March, published ~9AM on the 20th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$2.3bn week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-fielder-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:171:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Fielder (GFF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-telecom-ltd-5b64c473-761f-4a0a-a7f9-95770efefa20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30984:1" rel="noopener">TPG Telecom (TPG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electro-optic-systems-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20402:1" rel="noopener">Electro Optic Systems Hldg (EOS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 16th March, published ~9AM on the 20th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$2.3bn week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Goodman Fielder (GFF AU), Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU), TPG Telecom (TPG AU), DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU), Electro Optic Systems Hldg (EOS AU).


Aussie Shorts (16th Mar 2026): Goodman Fielder, Woodside Petroleum, TPG Telecom, DroneShield

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This insight is part of a series of M&amp;A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters, possibilities, and processes when companies conduct M&amp;A.</li>
<li>The initial guide - <a href="https://skr.ma/vfAwp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> - was published in May 2019. Since that time, there have been various new developments. </li>
<li>This is an update. These insights are designed to be used as a reference. They are not actionable. For a list of Quiddity M&amp;A Guides, click <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=%22quiddity%20M%26A%20Guide%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


This insight is part of a series of M&amp;A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters, possibilities, and processes when companies conduct M&amp;A.
The initial guide - Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 - was published in May 2019. Since that time, there have been various new developments. 
This is an update. These insights are designed to be used as a reference. They are not actionable. For a list of Quiddity M&amp;A Guides, click here.


Australia

Woodside Petroleum Limited explores for and produces oil and gas from offshore and onshore facilities located in Western Australia and Northern Territory. The Company operates numerous oil and gas fields and pipelines throughout Australia, United States and Mauritania and its products include liquefied natural gas, domestic gas, condensate, crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

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Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Oil Price Outlook: All Signs Point to a Brutal Near-Term and a Meaningful Long-Term Recovery

Although we continue to believe that crude oil prices are well below the levels required to incentivize sufficient investment to meet demand beyond...

Morningstar, Inc.

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (16th Mar 2026): Goodman Fielder, Woodside Petroleum, TPG Telecom, DroneShield

The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs"....

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity M&A Guide 2026: Australia

This insight is part of a series of M&A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters,...

David Blennerhassett

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