Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Industrial Bank Of Korea / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-bank-of-korea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:717:1" rel="noopener">Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.</li>
<li>This Insight discusses trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, and risk management strategies.</li>
</ul>


The Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS)/ Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight discusses trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, and risk management strategies.


Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS) Vs. Woori Financial (316140 KS): Pair Trade Signal

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Mirae Asset Securities / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.</li>
<li>We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.
We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.
We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector. 


A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a> remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers</li>
<li>Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns</li>
</ul>


Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations

Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers
Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns


Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group</li>
<li>Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks</li>
<li>C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean</li>
</ul>


Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group
Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks
C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean


Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

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Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS) Vs. Woori Financial (316140 KS): Pair Trade Signal

The article discusses a potential relative value opportunity in Industrial Bank Of Korea/Woori Financial Group price-ratio, with strategies for...

Gaudenz Schneider

A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.

Douglas Kim

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

News of ~USD740m placement, insight by Brian Freitas on this capital increase, it is a timely reminder of core credit metrics and concern for...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS) Vs. Woori Financial (316140 KS): Pair Trade Signal

​The article discusses a potential relative value opportunity in Industrial Bank Of Korea/Woori Financial Group price-ratio, with strategies for...

Gaudenz Schneider

A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.

Douglas Kim

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

​Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

News of ~USD740m placement, insight by Brian Freitas on this capital increase, it is a timely reminder of core credit metrics and concern for...

Daniel Tabbush

The article discusses a potential relative value opportunity in Industrial Bank Of Korea/Woori Financial Group price-ratio, with strategies for...

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...