Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a concept whose time has begun.</li><li>The blockchain protocol will come to be seen as a powerful antidote to the high fees charged by intermediaries such as banks, law firms and other “middlemen”.</li><li>Most blockchain projects are still in development mode.</li><li>But, over the next decade, DLT will hasten disruption in many sectors, including payments, lending, share trading, real estate, healthcare and infrastructure.</li><li>In this report, we look at the likely movers and shakers.</li></ul>

In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a concept whose time has begun.The blockchain protocol will come to be seen as a powerful antidote to the high fees charged by intermediaries such as banks, law firms and other “middlemen”.Most blockchain projects are still in development mode.But, over the next decade, DLT will hasten disruption in many sectors, including payments, lending, share trading, real estate, healthcare and infrastructure.In this report, we look at the likely movers and shakers.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-sunmi-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45410:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Sunmi Technology (6810 HK)</a> is a leader in Business Internet of Things (BIoT) solutions, its IPO size is relatively small with net proceeds of HK$908.7m.</li>
<li>We forecast its 3-year EPS CAGR at 26.4%, driven by its comprehensive customer coverage and geographical presence, and it will continue to see a positive margin trend. </li>
<li>At HK$24.86, it is priced at 21.4x FY26 PER, vs. 13.2x for the peer average. Its better growth has been discounted, making the IPO's risk-reward payoff unfavourable.  </li>
</ul>


While Shanghai Sunmi Technology (6810 HK) is a leader in Business Internet of Things (BIoT) solutions, its IPO size is relatively small with net proceeds of HK$908.7m.
We forecast its 3-year EPS CAGR at 26.4%, driven by its comprehensive customer coverage and geographical presence, and it will continue to see a positive margin trend. 
At HK$24.86, it is priced at 21.4x FY26 PER, vs. 13.2x for the peer average. Its better growth has been discounted, making the IPO's risk-reward payoff unfavourable.  


Shanghai Sunmi Technology (6810 HK) IPO: Doesn't Stand Out

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20456:1" rel="noopener">Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)</a>’s NZ$1.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.07 to A$1.43 valuation range. </li>
<li>Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is attractive and no competing proposal has emerged.</li>
<li>The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.  </li>
</ul>


The Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) IE considers Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)’s NZ$1.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.07 to A$1.43 valuation range. 
Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is attractive and no competing proposal has emerged.
The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.  


Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October

France

Worldline SA creates and operates digital transaction processing platforms. The Company offers merchant services and terminals, mobility and transactional services, financial processing and software licensing. Worldline services business around the world.

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Worldline SA (WLN FP)

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Blockchain as an Investment Theme

In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a...

CM Research

Shanghai Sunmi Technology (6810 HK) IPO: Doesn't Stand Out

Shanghai Sunmi is a BIoT leader with strong growth potential, but its small IPO size and high FY26F PER of 21.4x relative to the peer (13.2x) make...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October

The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Blockchain as an Investment Theme

In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a...

CM Research

Shanghai Sunmi Technology (6810 HK) IPO: Doesn't Stand Out

​Shanghai Sunmi is a BIoT leader with strong growth potential, but its small IPO size and high FY26F PER of 21.4x relative to the peer (13.2x) make...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October

The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.

Arun George

Shanghai Sunmi is a BIoT leader with strong growth potential, but its small IPO size and high FY26F PER of 21.4x relative to the peer (13.2x) make...