HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We highlight that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>, given its focus on vocational training, is an off-target victim of the government's regulations on the Private Education Sector and the "Double Reduction" policies. We think it will ride on government's latest supportive measures on vocational training; and with its schools providing training in culinary arts, IT &amp; Internet Technology and auto services, China East will benefit from the shortage of skills workers in China. Also, unlike K-12 education, private participation in vocational education is very encouraged by the government. China East's good post-COVID recovery can be demonstrated by the sharp rebound in student number and stable tuition fees in 1H21. With 90% of students enrolling in long-term program, it has good revenue visibility. We like its sound financial position - Rmb3.5bn net cash, and consideration of shareholder value - bought back nearly 14m shares in Jul and Aug. While valuations are high in absolute terms, China East is clearly another interesting name in the sector after our preferred play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>.

We highlight that China East Education (667 HK), given its focus on vocational training, is an off-target victim of the government's regulations on the Private Education Sector and the "Double Reduction" policies. We think it will ride on government's latest supportive measures on vocational training; and with its schools providing training in culinary arts, IT &amp; Internet Technology and auto services, China East will benefit from the shortage of skills workers in China. Also, unlike K-12 education, private participation in vocational education is very encouraged by the government. China East's good post-COVID recovery can be demonstrated by the sharp rebound in student number and stable tuition fees in 1H21. With 90% of students enrolling in long-term program, it has good revenue visibility. We like its sound financial position - Rmb3.5bn net cash, and consideration of shareholder value - bought back nearly 14m shares in Jul and Aug. While valuations are high in absolute terms, China East is clearly another interesting name in the sector after our preferred play China Education Group (839 HK).

China East Education (667 HK): Riding on Government's Push for Vocational Schools

We take the recent newsflow on business development at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> positively. While the market may still skeptical towards the company due to the sector's regulatory worries, CEG is standing in a better position than many of its peers given its focus on the vocational and higher education segment. In our view, the beaten-down performance of CEG's share price is not justified, and it is an interesting time to look at its long-term promising outlook now.   The 58% increase in approval higher education enrollment quota for 2021/2022 academic year, upside from contribution of the newly added Chengdu Jincheng College, support from banks and IFC through provisions of seven-year loan facilities at low pricing, rapid execution of M&amp;A and further potential pipeline acquisitions all lend support to CEG's business prospects amid a turbulent time. Our belief is that at 13.5x PER for FY22, CEG is inexpensively priced relative to growth.

We take the recent newsflow on business development at China Education Group (839 HK) positively. While the market may still skeptical towards the company due to the sector's regulatory worries, CEG is standing in a better position than many of its peers given its focus on the vocational and higher education segment. In our view, the beaten-down performance of CEG's share price is not justified, and it is an interesting time to look at its long-term promising outlook now.   The 58% increase in approval higher education enrollment quota for 2021/2022 academic year, upside from contribution of the newly added Chengdu Jincheng College, support from banks and IFC through provisions of seven-year loan facilities at low pricing, rapid execution of M&amp;A and further potential pipeline acquisitions all lend support to CEG's business prospects amid a turbulent time. Our belief is that at 13.5x PER for FY22, CEG is inexpensively priced relative to growth.

China Education (839 HK): More Flows of Positive Development

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> (CEG) reported an impressive 50.2% YoY growth in its adjusted net profit for 1H21, driven by the combination of good organic momentum and contribution from new schools added. By segment, higher education and global education are the key underpinning factors, as vocational education enrollment has disrupted more by COVID-19.In the post-1H21 result call, management revealed that 6 M&amp;A projects are now in advance discussion and expects many of them can be concluded in this year. This will add to the organic growth backed by higher enrollment, increase in tuition and efficiency enhancement. We take the guidance of a 32-41% of adjusted net profit growth for FY21 positively, and so is the market as the share price was up 7% so far today. Its valuation multiples are highly justified by the earnings growth prospects, execution capability and quality management, in our view.

China Education Group (839 HK) (CEG) reported an impressive 50.2% YoY growth in its adjusted net profit for 1H21, driven by the combination of good organic momentum and contribution from new schools added. By segment, higher education and global education are the key underpinning factors, as vocational education enrollment has disrupted more by COVID-19.In the post-1H21 result call, management revealed that 6 M&amp;A projects are now in advance discussion and expects many of them can be concluded in this year. This will add to the organic growth backed by higher enrollment, increase in tuition and efficiency enhancement. We take the guidance of a 32-41% of adjusted net profit growth for FY21 positively, and so is the market as the share price was up 7% so far today. Its valuation multiples are highly justified by the earnings growth prospects, execution capability and quality management, in our view.

China Education Group (839 HK): Encouraging Takeaways from 1H21 Result Call

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yuhua-education" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23627:1" rel="noopener">China Yuhua Education (6169 HK)</a> posted a 39.7% YoY growth in adjusted net profit as its higher education segment turned into a key earnings engine. Decent 4pp margin expansion was achieved from higher enrollment, hike in tuition and excellent cost control. We also saw an impressive 127.8% YoY increase in operating cash flow.Management points to further margin expansion for most of its universities, and this will drive contribution to net profit (91% of 1H21 profit from higher education). While M&amp;A activities have slowed, organic growth is expected to stay at least at 25% for the near term. Given its sufficient capacity, there is no need for fund raising from the market. In our view, its 16.3x PER and 4.8x P/B (FY21F ROE: 32%) are highly justified, and Yuhua Education remains one of our top picks as stated in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-private-education-this-is-where-the-future-lies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48727" rel="noopener">China Private Education: This Is Where the Future Lies</a>.

China Yuhua Education (6169 HK) posted a 39.7% YoY growth in adjusted net profit as its higher education segment turned into a key earnings engine. Decent 4pp margin expansion was achieved from higher enrollment, hike in tuition and excellent cost control. We also saw an impressive 127.8% YoY increase in operating cash flow.Management points to further margin expansion for most of its universities, and this will drive contribution to net profit (91% of 1H21 profit from higher education). While M&amp;A activities have slowed, organic growth is expected to stay at least at 25% for the near term. Given its sufficient capacity, there is no need for fund raising from the market. In our view, its 16.3x PER and 4.8x P/B (FY21F ROE: 32%) are highly justified, and Yuhua Education remains one of our top picks as stated in China Private Education: This Is Where the Future Lies. 

China Yuhua Education (6169 HK): Decent 1H21, Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17171" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17171">China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd</a> ("CGAS" or "CGA") and #<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20829">Baoxin Auto Group Ltd</a> ("Boaxin") issued a <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2015/1211/LTN20151211945.pdf" target="_blank">Joint Announcement</a> late Friday to the effect that after approvals/pre-conditions were met, CGAS would launch an Offer to purchase 75% of Baoxin at HK$5.99/share. I discussed the deal <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baoxin-cgas-partial-offer-promises-interesting-future-and-arb-grids" target="_blank">here</a> presenting basic details and Arb Grids. The deal is going to be "tough" for some people. The arb grids show how much internal leverage there is in the situation. The "gap risk" is sizable. This Quicknote…

China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd ("CGAS" or "CGA") and #Baoxin Auto Group Ltd ("Boaxin") issued a Joint Announcement late Friday to the effect that after approvals/pre-conditions were met, CGAS would launch an Offer to purchase 75% of Baoxin at HK$5.99/share. I discussed the deal here presenting basic details and Arb Grids. The deal is going to be "tough" for some people. The arb grids show how much internal leverage there is in the situation. The "gap risk" is sizable. This Quicknote…

Baoxin: CGAS Partial Offer - 2015 and 2016 Arb Grids

China

Offcn Education Technology Co Ltd offers education training services. The Company provides civil servants, institutions, and teachers training services. Offcn Education Technology mainly operates businesses in China

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Offcn Education Technology (002607 CH)

China East Education (667 HK): Riding on Government's Push for Vocational Schools

China East should benefit from the government's push on vocational education and its businesses have less regulatory risks. The net cash position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Education (839 HK): More Flows of Positive Development

Good enrollment quota growth, confidence from banking community and IFC and rapid execution of M&As are driving FY22 outlook for CEG, and this...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Education Group (839 HK): Encouraging Takeaways from 1H21 Result Call

After the good 1H21 result, CEG continues to suggest a robust outlook for the rest of the year, and guided for good full-year growth. More M&As are...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Yuhua Education (6169 HK): Decent 1H21, Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Yuhua Education should see good organic earnings prospects as it benefits from higher student enrollment, hike in tuition and cost control. There...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Baoxin: CGAS Partial Offer - 2015 and 2016 Arb Grids

China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd ("CGAS" or "CGA") and #Baoxin Auto Group Ltd ("Boaxin") issued a Joint Announcement late Friday to the...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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