Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.</li>
<li>Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd-9f877d22-7cf7-4b00-b525-cec71139f369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5794:1" rel="noopener">China Life (2628 HK)</a> and securities companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guolian-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:535:1" rel="noopener">Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.
Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like China Life (2628 HK) and securities companies like Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK). 
Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK). 


China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>WuXi Biologics’ Ireland facility has been approved by EMA as a commercial manufacturing site for a global client’s innovative biologic. Ab&amp;B Bio-Tech received approval for RSV vaccine in Chian.</li>
<li>Ascletis Pharma announced encouraging preclinical efficacy results for ASC47, a first-in-class muscle-preserving weight loss drug candidate. Remegen entered outlicensing agreement with Santen Pharmaceutical for a proprietary intravitreal injection.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo’s Ifinatamab deruxtecan has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA for small cell lung cancer. CSL intends to lay off 15% workforce and demerge CSL Seqirus.</li>
</ul>


WuXi Biologics’ Ireland facility has been approved by EMA as a commercial manufacturing site for a global client’s innovative biologic. Ab&amp;B Bio-Tech received approval for RSV vaccine in Chian.
Ascletis Pharma announced encouraging preclinical efficacy results for ASC47, a first-in-class muscle-preserving weight loss drug candidate. Remegen entered outlicensing agreement with Santen Pharmaceutical for a proprietary intravitreal injection.
Daiichi Sankyo’s Ifinatamab deruxtecan has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA for small cell lung cancer. CSL intends to lay off 15% workforce and demerge CSL Seqirus.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 24) – Wuxi Bio, Ab&B Bio, Ascletis Pharma, Remegen, Daiichi Sankyo, CSL

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.</li>
<li>The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.</li>
<li>At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.</li>
</ul>


China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.
The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.
At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.


What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

China

WuXi AppTec is a global contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) for the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries. It provides integrated, end-to-end services including chemistry drug CRDMO, biology discovery, preclinical testing, and clinical research services for various therapeutic modalities. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 24) – Wuxi Bio, Ab&B Bio, Ascletis Pharma, Remegen, Daiichi Sankyo, CSL

Wuxi Bio got EMA nod for Ireland manufacturing facility. Daiichi Sankyo got breakthrough therapy designation for its drug candidate in US. CSL...

Tina Banerjee

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Hengrui has entered into agreements with GSK for HRS-9821 and up to 11 programs, with high upfront payment of US$500 million and total amount of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

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Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

​The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 24) – Wuxi Bio, Ab&B Bio, Ascletis Pharma, Remegen, Daiichi Sankyo, CSL

Wuxi Bio got EMA nod for Ireland manufacturing facility. Daiichi Sankyo got breakthrough therapy designation for its drug candidate in US. CSL...

Tina Banerjee

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Hengrui has entered into agreements with GSK for HRS-9821 and up to 11 programs, with high upfront payment of US$500 million and total amount of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...