HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is the only winner.</li>
<li>For 2025, the strategy will switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Props (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.</li>
</ul>


2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.</li>
<li>Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.</li>
</ul>


Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical </a>are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.</li>
<li>WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, Sino Biopharmaceutical are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.
WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.
Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 33% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK rebounded.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was again the top buy and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> the top two sells. Tech is having a mixed outing now.</li>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back up this week to levels seen just off the autumn peak. An interesting week as stocks popped Monday, opened high Tuesday, then fell all week.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 33% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK rebounded.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and Tencent (700 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK) the top two sells. Tech is having a mixed outing now.
Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back up this week to levels seen just off the autumn peak. An interesting week as stocks popped Monday, opened high Tuesday, then fell all week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Dec 2024); Politburo Policy Change Bullish, Markets Wary, Buying

China

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Dec 2024); Politburo Policy Change Bullish, Markets Wary, Buying

SOUTHBOUND continues to buy, picking up what others don't want. Gross volumes higher, led by tech but tech flows are mixed. Financials continue to...

Travis Lundy

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"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

​The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

​Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

​10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Dec 2024); Politburo Policy Change Bullish, Markets Wary, Buying

SOUTHBOUND continues to buy, picking up what others don't want. Gross volumes higher, led by tech but tech flows are mixed. Financials continue to...

Travis Lundy

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...