Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Eli Lilly announced positive topline results from Phase 3 trial, evaluating orforglipron, discovered by Chugai. Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical initiated Phase 3 trial of HP-6050, a transdermal formulation for sedation in Japan.</li>
<li>WuXi XDC completed GMP release of its new drug product facility in China. CSPC Pharmaceutical’s application for marketing approval of Semaglutide Injection has been accepted by the NMPA of China.</li>
<li>Junshi Biosciences’s indication expansion application for toripalimab for treatment of urothelial carcinoma has been accepted in China. Hanmi Pharma advances HM17321, a first-in-class obesity therapy, into global Phase 1 trials.</li>
</ul>


Eli Lilly announced positive topline results from Phase 3 trial, evaluating orforglipron, discovered by Chugai. Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical initiated Phase 3 trial of HP-6050, a transdermal formulation for sedation in Japan.
WuXi XDC completed GMP release of its new drug product facility in China. CSPC Pharmaceutical’s application for marketing approval of Semaglutide Injection has been accepted by the NMPA of China.
Junshi Biosciences’s indication expansion application for toripalimab for treatment of urothelial carcinoma has been accepted in China. Hanmi Pharma advances HM17321, a first-in-class obesity therapy, into global Phase 1 trials.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 10) – Chugai, Hisamitsu, Wuxi XDC, CSPC Pharma, Junshi Bio, Hanmi Pharma

<ul>
<li>Shionogi applied for indication expansion of its oral COVID-19 drug for pediatric patients. Simcere Pharmaceutical received approval of Enzeshu for the treatment of ovarian cancer in China.</li>
<li>WuXi XDC has completed its manufacturing site in Singapore. The site to commence operation this year. Sino Biopharma got marketing approval in China for its inhouse congenital hemophilia drug Anqixin.</li>
<li>Apollo Hospitals is demerging its omni-channel pharmacy and digital health business. Torrent Pharmaceuticals is acquiring controlling stake in J. B. Chemicals at an equity valuation of INR 257B.</li>
</ul>


Shionogi applied for indication expansion of its oral COVID-19 drug for pediatric patients. Simcere Pharmaceutical received approval of Enzeshu for the treatment of ovarian cancer in China.
WuXi XDC has completed its manufacturing site in Singapore. The site to commence operation this year. Sino Biopharma got marketing approval in China for its inhouse congenital hemophilia drug Anqixin.
Apollo Hospitals is demerging its omni-channel pharmacy and digital health business. Torrent Pharmaceuticals is acquiring controlling stake in J. B. Chemicals at an equity valuation of INR 257B.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 6)- Shionogi, Simcere, Wuxi XDC, Sino Bio, Apollo Hosp, Torrent Pharma

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries of Trump's tariff exemption.</li>
<li>On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.</li>
<li>There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally. </li>
</ul>



Lenovo (992 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK) are the prime beneficiaries of Trump's tariff exemption.
On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.
There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally. 


China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

China

WuXi XDC is a leading global Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) specializing in antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates. The company offers integrated, end-to-end services for the discovery, process development, and GMP manufacturing of bioconjugates, monoclonal antibody intermediates, and payload-linkers. WuXi XDC was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.

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WuXi XDC (2268 HK)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 10) – Chugai, Hisamitsu, Wuxi XDC, CSPC Pharma, Junshi Bio, Hanmi Pharma

Obesity treatment related development dominated the week, with Chugai’s drug candidate meeting Phase 3 trial goals, CSPC is a step ahead for...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 6)- Shionogi, Simcere, Wuxi XDC, Sino Bio, Apollo Hosp, Torrent Pharma

Simcere, CSPC, and Sino Bio got approvals for their new drugs in China. Apollo Hospital announced a demerger. Torrent is acquiring controlling...

Tina Banerjee

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 10) – Chugai, Hisamitsu, Wuxi XDC, CSPC Pharma, Junshi Bio, Hanmi Pharma

Obesity treatment related development dominated the week, with Chugai’s drug candidate meeting Phase 3 trial goals, CSPC is a step ahead for...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 6)- Shionogi, Simcere, Wuxi XDC, Sino Bio, Apollo Hosp, Torrent Pharma

Simcere, CSPC, and Sino Bio got approvals for their new drugs in China. Apollo Hospital announced a demerger. Torrent is acquiring controlling...

Tina Banerjee

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

​Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...