Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has seen a rebound in July, while North Asian markets declined sharply as the global AI/semiconductor sectors de-rated.</li>
<li>The financials sector has outperformed over the last 8 weeks, while the tech sector has shown increased strength and momentum.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a> share price rebounded over the last week before its August Q226 earnings announcement.  The company has increased its share of the mass-market gaming in Macau.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has seen a rebound in July, while North Asian markets declined sharply as the global AI/semiconductor sectors de-rated.
The financials sector has outperformed over the last 8 weeks, while the tech sector has shown increased strength and momentum.

MGM China (2282 HK) share price rebounded over the last week before its August Q226 earnings announcement.  The company has increased its share of the mass-market gaming in Macau.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 2026)

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FY2025 GGR reached a record MOP247.4bn (+9.1% YoY), yet Macau casinos trade at just ~6.8x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, well below pre-COVID levels. The recovery is real; the re-rating has not happened.</li>
<li>The cheapest share price is not the cheapest company. SJM is the sector's most expensive stock at 9.1x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, while MGM is among the cheapest at 4.6x.</li>
<li>Bullish on MGM China (top pick), Melco, Sands China and Galaxy. Neutral on Wynn Macau and SJM, where balance-sheet constraints limit upside potential.</li>
</ul>


FY2025 GGR reached a record MOP247.4bn (+9.1% YoY), yet Macau casinos trade at just ~6.8x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, well below pre-COVID levels. The recovery is real; the re-rating has not happened.
The cheapest share price is not the cheapest company. SJM is the sector's most expensive stock at 9.1x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, while MGM is among the cheapest at 4.6x.
Bullish on MGM China (top pick), Melco, Sands China and Galaxy. Neutral on Wynn Macau and SJM, where balance-sheet constraints limit upside potential.


Macau Gaming Handbook 2026: One Market, Six Concessionaires, One Yardstick

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

<ul>
<li>Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.</li>
<li>Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.
</li>
</ul>


Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Macau

Wynn Macau, Limited develops, owns, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in Macau. The company's properties, including Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace, offer casino gaming, luxury hotel accommodations, diverse dining, high-end retail, and entertainment facilities. It was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau.

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Wynn Macau (1128 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 2026)

The Hong Kong market has seen a rebound in July, while North Asian markets declined sharply as the global AI/semiconductor sectors de-rated.

David Mudd

Macau Gaming Handbook 2026: One Market, Six Concessionaires, One Yardstick

The complete guide to Macau gaming — industry, regulation, Beijing risk and all six concessionaires ranked and valued on one yardstick. Read this...

Mo Aziz

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

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