Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau</li>
<li>In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further", adding that "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen".</li>
<li>Still, officials noted that although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued expanding at a solid pace and labour market conditions have remained strong. Meanwhile, inflation is "somewhat elevated".</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau
In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further", adding that "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen".
Still, officials noted that although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued expanding at a solid pace and labour market conditions have remained strong. Meanwhile, inflation is "somewhat elevated".


<ul>
<li>In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau</li>
<li>Credit markets narrowed last Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over decreasing 2 bps to 279 bps. European bourses were mostly down 0.1- 0.8%, except for the CAC 40 (+0.2%), IBEX 35 (+0.2%) and FTSE MIB (+0.2%).</li>
<li>In the US, the S&amp;P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are both up 0.1%. US equity futures are mostly higher. WTI is trading at USD 70.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 74.8/bbl.</li>
</ul>


In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau
Credit markets narrowed last Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over decreasing 2 bps to 279 bps. European bourses were mostly down 0.1- 0.8%, except for the CAC 40 (+0.2%), IBEX 35 (+0.2%) and FTSE MIB (+0.2%).
In the US, the S&amp;P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are both up 0.1%. US equity futures are mostly higher. WTI is trading at USD 70.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 74.8/bbl.


<ul>
<li>In the US, January advance retail sales came in weaker than expected, declining 0.9% m-o-m (-0.2% e / 0.7% revised p).</li>
<li>The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s goods spending calculation for GDP) decreased 0.8% (0.3% e / 0.8% revised p), the lowest level since March 2023.</li>
<li>Separately, January 2025 industrial production rose 0.5% (0.3% e / 1.0% revised p), with capacity utilisation edging up to 77.8% (77.7% e / 77.5% p).</li>
</ul>


In the US, January advance retail sales came in weaker than expected, declining 0.9% m-o-m (-0.2% e / 0.7% revised p).
The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s goods spending calculation for GDP) decreased 0.8% (0.3% e / 0.8% revised p), the lowest level since March 2023.
Separately, January 2025 industrial production rose 0.5% (0.3% e / 1.0% revised p), with capacity utilisation edging up to 77.8% (77.7% e / 77.5% p).


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. </li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a> goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> is at extreme levels vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>; yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.</li>
</ul>


This deal for Qube Holdings (QUB AU) from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. 
As Digital Holdings (2389 JP) goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) is at extreme levels vs. Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK); yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Qube Holdings, Digital Holdings, Wynn Resorts/Macau, SNT/SMEC

Hong Kong

Wynn Macau, Limited owns and operates Wynn Macau, a destination casino resort currently featuring hotel rooms and suites, a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space and leisure amenities.

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Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau In the US, the FOMC has...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau Credit markets narrowed last...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau. In the US, January advance retail...

Lucror Analytics

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

Last Week In Event SPACE: Qube Holdings, Digital Holdings, Wynn Resorts/Macau, SNT/SMEC

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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