Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our indicators have seen a surge in coverage of Macau in the context of the Digital RMB, starting with Macau Chief Executive Ho Lat Seng's mid-April plan to amend legislation in order to accommodate the e-RMB rollout; sentiment on the Macau gaming sector appears to be pulling back as a result</li>
<li>While the long-standing crackdown on VIP junkets has been a factor for Macau's casino operators throughout the previous cycle, rollout of the Digital RMB may also suppress growth in the important premium mass segment</li>
<li>Defensives vs. cyclicals relative sentiment recovered from a multi-year low of -3.5x STDEVs in mid-March to near-neutral readings last week, as the bond rally and flattening yield curve led a few high-profile strategists to call for more defensive positioning; but this phenomenon has now decisively peaked out without any significant thematic reversal, on refreshed expectations of rising yields and action in the commodity complex</li>
<li>European recovery indicators have made new post-pandemic highs, aided by improvement in sentiment on the pace of vaccinations, with implications for EUR/USD</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Our indicators have seen a surge in coverage of Macau in the context of the Digital RMB, starting with Macau Chief Executive Ho Lat Seng's mid-April plan to amend legislation in order to accommodate the e-RMB rollout; sentiment on the Macau gaming sector appears to be pulling back as a result
While the long-standing crackdown on VIP junkets has been a factor for Macau's casino operators throughout the previous cycle, rollout of the Digital RMB may also suppress growth in the important premium mass segment
Defensives vs. cyclicals relative sentiment recovered from a multi-year low of -3.5x STDEVs in mid-March to near-neutral readings last week, as the bond rally and flattening yield curve led a few high-profile strategists to call for more defensive positioning; but this phenomenon has now decisively peaked out without any significant thematic reversal, on refreshed expectations of rising yields and action in the commodity complex
European recovery indicators have made new post-pandemic highs, aided by improvement in sentiment on the pace of vaccinations, with implications for EUR/USD
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  Macau, Defensives Vs. Cyclicals, Europe's Recovery

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Macau Gaming:  Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

Asia gaming and consumer discretionary analyst

Michael Ting

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -94.5% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong Province during the month. We expect September GGR to decline 94% yoy given lower seasonality. Our channel checks for October Golden Week hotel bookings indicate Macau travel demand could be weaker vs. previous Golden Week periods. Overall, we expect the recovery in Macau sector revenues to be a slow process. Top sector pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sjm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1" rel="noopener">Sjm Holdings (880 HK)</a> .

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -94.5% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong Province during the month. We expect September GGR to decline 94% yoy given lower seasonality. Our channel checks for October Golden Week hotel bookings indicate Macau travel demand could be weaker vs. previous Golden Week periods. Overall, we expect the recovery in Macau sector revenues to be a slow process. Top sector pick is Sjm Holdings (880 HK) .

Macau August GGR: When Do the Punters Return?

Macau

Wynn Macau, Limited develops, owns, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in Macau. The company's properties, including Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace, offer casino gaming, luxury hotel accommodations, diverse dining, high-end retail, and entertainment facilities. It was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau.

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Wynn Macau (1128 HK)

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

FINANCIALS IN CROSSHAIRS: Mainland China is appointing government officials to supervise the gaming companies. There appears to be a genuine...

Thomas J. Monaco

TMI Snapshots: Macau, Defensives Vs. Cyclicals, Europe's Recovery

Our text analytics see negative sentiment on Macau's gaming operators due to e-RMB progress despite positive reopening data; a return to...

Elan Gore

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Macau Gaming: Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

As sentiment begins to turn in Macau Gaming stocks, Global EM investors are positioned at their lowest levels in a decade.

Steven Holden

Macau August GGR: When Do the Punters Return?

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -95% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong...

Michael Ting

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