Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation.

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation. 

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/438/original/1.jpg?1547412238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75438"></figure>

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded...until we get a deal with China. It's not going to be just Apple." Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaking last week‘I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be.’ Warren Buffet

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded...until we get a deal with China. It's not going to be just Apple." Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaking last week‘I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be.’ Warren Buffet

Macau Offers Positive China Consumer Surprise

Sentiment of Macau gaming stocks is extremely low right now with buy-side consensus 0-10% YoY decline in VIP and 5-10% increase in mass segment in 2019.  We are more positive given our latest casino tracking intelligence.  Discretionary spending in China has slowed but it has not collapsed.  Cultural heritage and gaming habits are counter cyclical support for casino businesses in Asian markets.  Upside in casino GGR in next few months could provide a catalyst for a rally as confidence rebounds.

Sentiment of Macau gaming stocks is extremely low right now with buy-side consensus 0-10% YoY decline in VIP and 5-10% increase in mass segment in 2019.  We are more positive given our latest casino tracking intelligence.  Discretionary spending in China has slowed but it has not collapsed.  Cultural heritage and gaming habits are counter cyclical support for casino businesses in Asian markets.  Upside in casino GGR in next few months could provide a catalyst for a rally as confidence rebounds.   

Macau Gaming GGR Rebounding on High Rolling Demand and Easy Comp

Macau

Wynn Macau, Limited develops, owns, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in Macau. The company's properties, including Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace, offer casino gaming, luxury hotel accommodations, diverse dining, high-end retail, and entertainment facilities. It was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau.

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Wynn Macau (1128 HK)

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday. While growth rates clearly weakened compared...

JL Warren Capital

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays. Change in M1 typically...

JL Warren Capital

Macau Offers Positive China Consumer Surprise

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be...

Sean Maher

Macau Gaming GGR Rebounding on High Rolling Demand and Easy Comp

Sentiment of Macau gaming stocks is extremely low right now with buy-side consensus 0-10% YoY decline in VIP and 5-10% increase in mass segment in...

JL Warren Capital

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