Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Into the final straight. Victoria and NSW have signed off on Blackstone’s proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Gaming regulatory approval from Western Australia remains outstanding, but this is done. Crown's conduct in WA was no better - or worse - than it was in Victoria and NSW.</li>
<li>Trading super tight with potentially another month or so until payment.</li>
</ul>


Into the final straight. Victoria and NSW have signed off on Blackstone’s proposed acquisition of Crown Resorts (CWN AU).
Gaming regulatory approval from Western Australia remains outstanding, but this is done. Crown's conduct in WA was no better - or worse - than it was in Victoria and NSW.
Trading super tight with potentially another month or so until payment.


Crown Resorts: Regulatory Approvals Falling Into Place

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02504351-3A590725?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 29 April with possible implementation on the 12 May.  </li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded Blackstone's Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Crown shareholders.</li>
<li>This transaction is a done deal, and is trading accordingly.</li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 29 April with possible implementation on the 12 May.  
The Independent Expert has concluded Blackstone's Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Crown shareholders.
This transaction is a done deal, and is trading accordingly.


Crown Resorts: Scheme Booklet Lodged. Shareholder Meeting On 29 April

<ul>
<li>The Perth Casino Royal Commission has found <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s casino in Perth, Western Australia, is "not suitable" to hold a gaming licence.</li>
<li>This follows the findings in New South Wales and Victoria that two of Crown Resort’s other subsidiaries were either not suitable to be granted a casino license or not suitable.</li>
<li>As with the recently announced AUSTRAC proceedings, Blackstone would have been well prepared for this latest development.</li>
</ul>


The Perth Casino Royal Commission has found Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s casino in Perth, Western Australia, is "not suitable" to hold a gaming licence.
This follows the findings in New South Wales and Victoria that two of Crown Resort’s other subsidiaries were either not suitable to be granted a casino license or not suitable.
As with the recently announced AUSTRAC proceedings, Blackstone would have been well prepared for this latest development.


No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> has now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02486241-3A587210?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into</a> an implementation deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares by way of Scheme of A$13.10/share, the same price as previously announced.</li>
<li>James Packer, holding ~37% of shares out, has not yet indicated whether he will support the Offer. Presumably, this is moot. </li>
<li>The Offer is subject to a raft of conditions including approvals from FIRB and various gaming regulators. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU) has now entered into an implementation deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares by way of Scheme of A$13.10/share, the same price as previously announced.
James Packer, holding ~37% of shares out, has not yet indicated whether he will support the Offer. Presumably, this is moot. 
The Offer is subject to a raft of conditions including approvals from FIRB and various gaming regulators. 


United States

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

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Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Crown Resorts: Regulatory Approvals Falling Into Place

This transaction is done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 0.7%/8.7%, assuming payment in around a month. Unless you want to lock in a ~1%...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts: Scheme Booklet Lodged. Shareholder Meeting On 29 April

This transaction is done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 2.7%/25.8%. This remains a buy here and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence

I still consider this Offer as being done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.4%/21%, assuming mid-June payment. This remains a buy.

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts Backs Blackstone’s Offer

This Offer is done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 3.5%/10.9%, assuming mid-June payment. That's reasonably attractive.

David Blennerhassett

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