Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on our research, we estimate that the total gaming revenue for the first ten days in September was about MOP 6.8 billion and Average Daily Revenue (ADR) MOP680 million, representing 11% growth year-over-year, 9% lower than the 20% GGR growth in Aug year-over-year (Exhibit 1).   VIP growth still leads the mass segment, although the extremely low luck factor comprises the GGR from VIP segment.  MTD, the overall VIP luck factor was ~2.7%, or 10% lower than the average of 3% historically.We…

Based on our research, we estimate that the total gaming revenue for the first ten days in September was about MOP 6.8 billion and Average Daily Revenue (ADR) MOP680 million, representing 11% growth year-over-year, 9% lower than the 20% GGR growth in Aug year-over-year (Exhibit 1).   VIP growth still leads the mass segment, although the extremely low luck factor comprises the GGR from VIP segment.  MTD, the overall VIP luck factor was ~2.7%, or 10% lower than the average of 3% historically.We…

Macau Gaming Sept Update: Turning China's FX Policy Is A Positive

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Breadth is waning – there’s no question about that. Yet selling appears to be discriminate, so far, as if there’s a reason behind which stocks get hit, not the indiscriminate “sell-button.” But even with waning breadth, the weight-of-the-evidence still supports further upside. We believe this dip in breadth is a favorable sign for stock-pickers, creating an environment where selectivity can aid in outperformance. This week we provide an update to our investment thesis and highlight attractive opportunities within the gaming stocks, and a wide range of other cyclical companies.

Breadth is waning – there’s no question about that. Yet selling appears to be discriminate, so far, as if there’s a reason behind which stocks get hit, not the indiscriminate “sell-button.” But even with waning breadth, the weight-of-the-evidence still supports further upside. We believe this dip in breadth is a favorable sign for stock-pickers, creating an environment where selectivity can aid in outperformance. This week we provide an update to our investment thesis and highlight attractive opportunities within the gaming stocks, and a wide range of other cyclical companies.

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city.</li><li>Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that an old town can be rejuvenated into a robust "experiential consumption" story.</li><li>Meeting take-away indicates that the U.S. gaming companies are more bullish on international markets.</li><li>Macau is the clear front-runner in following Las Vegas's footsteps in the latter's evolution into a family entertainment center (prolonging the growth story).</li></ul>

Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city.Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that an old town can be rejuvenated into a robust "experiential consumption" story.Meeting take-away indicates that the U.S. gaming companies are more bullish on international markets.Macau is the clear front-runner in following Las Vegas's footsteps in the latter's evolution into a family entertainment center (prolonging the growth story).

Field Trip Series: Viva Vegas (Including Implications for Macau Gaming)

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul>
<li>Vietnam's new Decree #3, while not perfect, clarifies and encourages IR investment that aims to bring minimum $2 billion investors into the market.</li>
<li>Major casino developers won't sit around forever to expand their Asian footprint.</li>
</ul>Japan's LDP Party's local election setbacks cast a lengthening shadow on the timetable of enabling casino legislation.Life teaches us that often the most ardent of lovers can tire of the pursuit of a diffident love object and turn to the lure of pursuing a new, more…


Vietnam's new Decree #3, while not perfect, clarifies and encourages IR investment that aims to bring minimum $2 billion investors into the market.
Major casino developers won't sit around forever to expand their Asian footprint.
Japan's LDP Party's local election setbacks cast a lengthening shadow on the timetable of enabling casino legislation.Life teaches us that often the most ardent of lovers can tire of the pursuit of a diffident love object and turn to the lure of pursuing a new, more…

If Japan Drops the Casino Ball, Vietnam Is Ready to Run with It Faster than Many Observers Think

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs. consensus 27%) and 2) the suspension of cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards on “non-KYC” ATM machines.  On July 3rd, the Unionpay Macau Monetary Authority announced that cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards at “non-KYC” ATMs without facial and ID recognition functions were to be suspended on July 4th and will only be reactivated when the cards are…

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs. consensus 27%) and 2) the suspension of cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards on “non-KYC” ATM machines.  On July 3rd, the Unionpay Macau Monetary Authority announced that cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards at “non-KYC” ATMs without facial and ID recognition functions were to be suspended on July 4th and will only be reactivated when the cards are…

Macau Gaming Update: July GGR Off to a Strong Start

United States

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

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Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)

Macau Gaming Sept Update: Turning China's FX Policy Is A Positive

Based on our research, we estimate that the total gaming revenue for the first ten days in September was about MOP 6.8 billion and Average Daily...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Breadth is waning – there’s no question about that. Yet selling appears to be discriminate, so far, as if there’s a reason behind which stocks get...

Vermilion Research

Field Trip Series: Viva Vegas (Including Implications for Macau Gaming)

Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city. Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that...

Johannes Salim, CFA

If Japan Drops the Casino Ball, Vietnam Is Ready to Run with It Faster than Many Observers Think

Vietnam's new Decree #3, while not perfect, clarifies and encourages IR investment that aims to bring minimum $2 billion investors into the...

Howard J Klein

Macau Gaming Update: July GGR Off to a Strong Start

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs....

JL Warren Capital

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