External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was massive in 1H23E.</li><li>After a disappointing 2Q23 plus worrying macro outlook, we downgrade the sector to MARKET-PERFORM as we see more downside in earnings.</li><li>However, as valuation turned more attractive, we can start to accumulate industry leaders. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was massive in 1H23E.After a disappointing 2Q23 plus worrying macro outlook, we downgrade the sector to MARKET-PERFORM as we see more downside in earnings.However, as valuation turned more attractive, we can start to accumulate industry leaders. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Catering Sector – Staying cautious after a disappointing 2Q23E

<ul><li>Impressive recovery vs Feb-Apr 2023, while both consumer and investors sentiment should be boosted, the post holidays purchasing power is still important.</li><li>We find the data points during this 5-1 golden week in 2023 slightly better than expectation and encouraging, esp. after the weakening consumption trend post CNY 2023.</li><li>We are highly delighted to see a surge in recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this holiday to 119%/ 101%, which is far better than the 83%/ 51% in Qingming Festival and 89%/ 73% in CNY, according to Ministry of Culture and Tourism/文化和旅游部.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Impressive recovery vs Feb-Apr 2023, while both consumer and investors sentiment should be boosted, the post holidays purchasing power is still important.We find the data points during this 5-1 golden week in 2023 slightly better than expectation and encouraging, esp. after the weakening consumption trend post CNY 2023.We are highly delighted to see a surge in recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this holiday to 119%/ 101%, which is far better than the 83%/ 51% in Qingming Festival and 89%/ 73% in CNY, according to Ministry of Culture and Tourism/文化和旅游部.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Sector – A Strong Comeback in 5-1 Golden Week

<ul><li>Maintained OUTPERFORM after our Shenzhen Consumer Tour.</li><li>We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering &amp; shopping mall operators) during our trip to Shenzhen this week.</li><li>This channel check has strengthened our OUTPERFORM view on the Consumer discretionary sector, backed by 3 trends</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintained OUTPERFORM after our Shenzhen Consumer Tour.We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering &amp; shopping mall operators) during our trip to Shenzhen this week.This channel check has strengthened our OUTPERFORM view on the Consumer discretionary sector, backed by 3 trendsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Sector – Shenzhen Trip: sustained growth in Feb 2023

<ul><li>Remarkable recovery vs 4Q22, improving spending power and excellent sustainability.</li><li>We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector, because: 1) the base was high in 2022, as the number of COVID-19 cases were very limited during Jan-Feb 2022 and the number of passenger journeys already grew by 31% YoY</li><li>2) the improvement is significant vs 4Q22, supported by the 89%/ 73% recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this CNY, better than 61%/ 44% in the 10-1 holidays and any level in the entire 2022 year,</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Remarkable recovery vs 4Q22, improving spending power and excellent sustainability.We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector, because: 1) the base was high in 2022, as the number of COVID-19 cases were very limited during Jan-Feb 2022 and the number of passenger journeys already grew by 31% YoY2) the improvement is significant vs 4Q22, supported by the 89%/ 73% recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this CNY, better than 61%/ 44% in the 10-1 holidays and any level in the entire 2022 year,Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Sector – Strong recovery and sustainability during CNY

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.</li>
<li>Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.</li>
<li>It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiabuxiabu-catering-mgt-chn-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:76:1" rel="noopener">Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's (9869 HK)</a> which have almost doubled from trough.</li>
</ul>


While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.
Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.
It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like Haidilao (6862 HK), Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) and Helen's (9869 HK) which have almost doubled from trough.


China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

China

Xiabuxiabu Catering Management (China) Holdings Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand restaurant operator specializing in Chinese hotpot, primarily through its fast-casual Xiabuxiabu brand and premium Coucou brand. The company also offers catering services and sells condiment products. It was founded in Beijing, China, in 1998.

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Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)

China Catering Sector – Staying cautious after a disappointing 2Q23E

Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was...

CMB International

China Consumer Sector – A Strong Comeback in 5-1 Golden Week

Impressive recovery vs Feb-Apr 2023, while both consumer and investors sentiment should be boosted, the post holidays purchasing power is still...

CMB International

China Consumer Sector – Shenzhen Trip: sustained growth in Feb 2023

We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering & shopping mall operators) during our trip to...

CMB International

China Consumer Sector – Strong recovery and sustainability during CNY

We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector

CMB International

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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