HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, the share prices of the H-share IPOs of A-shares increased by an average of 30.2%, and the H-A discount narrowed by 14.8pp, but the range is wide.</li>
<li>The growth outlook, as reflected by the 3-year EPS CAGR, is the key driver for the performance and reduction in H-A share discounts.</li>
<li>Market cap, absolute PER multiples, and even relative PER ratios are not the major factors supporting their post-IPO performance.</li>
</ul>


YTD, the share prices of the H-share IPOs of A-shares increased by an average of 30.2%, and the H-A discount narrowed by 14.8pp, but the range is wide.
The growth outlook, as reflected by the 3-year EPS CAGR, is the key driver for the performance and reduction in H-A share discounts.
Market cap, absolute PER multiples, and even relative PER ratios are not the major factors supporting their post-IPO performance.


HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.</li>
<li>OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.</li>
<li>The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiao</a>.</li>
</ul>


From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.
OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.
The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Dong E E Jiao.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.</li>
<li>Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.</li>
<li>Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>.</li>
</ul>


Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.
Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.
Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Giant Biogene.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a> launched its Japan IPO, while we also looked at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/big-c-supercenter-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16801:1" rel="noopener">Big C Supercenter (BIGC TB)</a>'s past performance. </li>
<li>On the placement front, in India the market hitting all-time highs appears to have driven a flurry of blocks.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Tryt Inc (9164 JP) launched its Japan IPO, while we also looked at Big C Supercenter (BIGC TB)'s past performance. 
On the placement front, in India the market hitting all-time highs appears to have driven a flurry of blocks.


ECM Weekly (25th June 2023) - Tryt, Shiyue Daotian, Keep, SML, HDFC, Shriram, Tata Tech, Doosan, J&T

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (KEEP HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products.
In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.


Keep Pre-IPO - Updates Since Our Last Note - Losses Have Been the Only Constant

China

Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes food supplements. The Company produces freshly stewed bird's nest, dry bird's nest, and other products. Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering conducts businesses in China.

Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (XIAMEN HK)

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Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (XIAMEN HK)

HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

As Yan palace's revenue growth further declines, effectiveness of marketing activities has already decrease. Huge selling expenses erode profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Since the efficacy/actual value of EBN is questionable, marketing/promotion alone cannot drive future performance growth.Yan Palace's profit model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (25th June 2023) - Tryt, Shiyue Daotian, Keep, SML, HDFC, Shriram, Tata Tech, Doosan, J&T

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Keep Pre-IPO - Updates Since Our Last Note - Losses Have Been the Only Constant

Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

​H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

As Yan palace's revenue growth further declines, effectiveness of marketing activities has already decrease. Huge selling expenses erode profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Since the efficacy/actual value of EBN is questionable, marketing/promotion alone cannot drive future performance growth.Yan Palace's profit model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (25th June 2023) - Tryt, Shiyue Daotian, Keep, SML, HDFC, Shriram, Tata Tech, Doosan, J&T

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Keep Pre-IPO - Updates Since Our Last Note - Losses Have Been the Only Constant

Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.

Clarence Chu

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....