HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Power output for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> is healthy in Jul-Aug, following the solid trend in 1H23. The drop in hydropower has moderated and wind and solar stayed decent.</li>
<li>Capacity growth will reach 43% in FY23. With just 7.8% YoY in 1H23, most of the new capacity will be added in 4Q23, accelerating both output and profitability.</li>
<li>The parent SPIC's massive clean energy assets are candidates for potential injection. CPI's high EPS CAGR of 28.8% means that it well deserves premium valuation multiples. </li>
</ul>


Power output for China Power International (2380 HK) is healthy in Jul-Aug, following the solid trend in 1H23. The drop in hydropower has moderated and wind and solar stayed decent.
Capacity growth will reach 43% in FY23. With just 7.8% YoY in 1H23, most of the new capacity will be added in 4Q23, accelerating both output and profitability.
The parent SPIC's massive clean energy assets are candidates for potential injection. CPI's high EPS CAGR of 28.8% means that it well deserves premium valuation multiples. 


China Power International (2380 HK): Continuing the Turnaround Trend

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There have only been 7 new listings on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> in the third quarter of the year so far.</li>
<li>Of those stocks, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There have only been 7 new listings on the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter of the year so far.
Of those stocks, only Keep Inc (3650 HK) has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.

Keep Inc (3650 HK) is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> is now attractively priced at 5.9x and 5.2x PERs for FY23 and FY24, respectively. The 2Q23 result clearly showed that business is gathering momentum.</li>
<li>Margins have demonstrated good improvement despite weaker tariffs and coal sale business. With a very low base in last year, its 2H23 earnings growth will be impressive.</li>
<li>There is positive progress on new project sign-up which has secured its pipeline. Asset injection from parent will stay as a major theme in the next two years.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power (916 HK) is now attractively priced at 5.9x and 5.2x PERs for FY23 and FY24, respectively. The 2Q23 result clearly showed that business is gathering momentum.
Margins have demonstrated good improvement despite weaker tariffs and coal sale business. With a very low base in last year, its 2H23 earnings growth will be impressive.
There is positive progress on new project sign-up which has secured its pipeline. Asset injection from parent will stay as a major theme in the next two years.


China Longyuan (916 HK): Value Has Definitely Emerged

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 345 million and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 345 million and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, CCB.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 9th): Tencent, China Mobile, CCB

<ul>
<li>The FY22 profit warning for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> reflected mostly items of one-off in nature and the weak result should be a matter of the past.</li>
<li>The Jan overall generation growth of 30.6% and wind power growth of 44.4% are very solid performance. With economic rebound and low comparison base, we expect growth to sustain.</li>
<li>Asset injection from CHN Energy and improvement in financial position through subsidy collection are positives, making its below 10x PERs for FY23 and FY24 attractive. </li>
</ul>


The FY22 profit warning for China Longyuan Power (916 HK) reflected mostly items of one-off in nature and the weak result should be a matter of the past.
The Jan overall generation growth of 30.6% and wind power growth of 44.4% are very solid performance. With economic rebound and low comparison base, we expect growth to sustain.
Asset injection from CHN Energy and improvement in financial position through subsidy collection are positives, making its below 10x PERs for FY23 and FY24 attractive. 


China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

China

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited operates as a renewable energy project development company. The Company provides installation, construction, and maintenance of solar plant, as well as offers photovoltaic transformation systems. Xinyi Energy Holdings serves customers in China.

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Xinyi Energy Holdings (3868 HK)

China Power International (2380 HK): Continuing the Turnaround Trend

CPI's capacity growth is expected to reach 43% in FY23, with most of them to be added in 4Q23, boosting output and profitability. Its high EPS CAGR...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

Only Keep (3650 HK) had a chance of being added to the HSCI in Dec. Coming in right at the cutoff, price moves over the next two weeks are...

Brian Freitas

China Longyuan (916 HK): Value Has Definitely Emerged

Longyuan is attractively priced and showing strong business momentum, with improved margins and impressive growth. New project sign-ups and asset...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 9th): Tencent, China Mobile, CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, and China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

Focus should be on the encouraging outlook and Longyuan's good Jan generation growth of 44.4% for wind power is a solid evidence. Parent asset...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Power International (2380 HK): Continuing the Turnaround Trend

CPI's capacity growth is expected to reach 43% in FY23, with most of them to be added in 4Q23, boosting output and profitability. Its high EPS CAGR...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

Only Keep (3650 HK) had a chance of being added to the HSCI in Dec. Coming in right at the cutoff, price moves over the next two weeks are...

Brian Freitas

China Longyuan (916 HK): Value Has Definitely Emerged

​Longyuan is attractively priced and showing strong business momentum, with improved margins and impressive growth. New project sign-ups and asset...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 9th): Tencent, China Mobile, CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, and China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

Focus should be on the encouraging outlook and Longyuan's good Jan generation growth of 44.4% for wind power is a solid evidence. Parent asset...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Longyuan is attractively priced and showing strong business momentum, with improved margins and impressive growth. New project sign-ups and asset...