Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

With Tesla down 22.4% from its recent all-time high and as much 31.3% at the lows yesterday, and competition increasing with the high profile SPAC investment in Lucid, we believe it is time to seriously consider the short thesis again, for EVs overall, but Tesla in particular.

With Tesla down 22.4% from its recent all-time high and as much 31.3% at the lows yesterday, and competition increasing with the high profile SPAC investment in Lucid, we believe it is time to seriously consider the short thesis again, for EVs overall, but Tesla in particular.

Tesla – Threats from the Taycan and Lucid Air

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Xpeng's share performance has been weak recently. We believe this is mainly due to concerns in the market on the IPO lock-up period expiring. The company's fundamental stays solid. January car delivery had the best MoM growth rate among peers. Recently released NGP is being recognized by customers as the best guided auto pilot in China, which would be a strong driver of its car sales.Xpeng lock up period will expire on 23rd Feb. We believe any further share performance weakness before and after the date would be great buying opportunity.

Xpeng's share performance has been weak recently. We believe this is mainly due to concerns in the market on the IPO lock-up period expiring. The company's fundamental stays solid. January car delivery had the best MoM growth rate among peers. Recently released NGP is being recognized by customers as the best guided auto pilot in China, which would be a strong driver of its car sales.Xpeng lock up period will expire on 23rd Feb. We believe any further share performance weakness before and after the date would be great buying opportunity.

Xpeng - Lock-Up Period Expiry Concerns Create Buying Opportunity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

RLX Technology Inc / Equity Capital Markets

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a> has raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. 
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In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.
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Links to our previous notes:
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-low-penetration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46797" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-limited-track-record-and-missing-international-ops" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46836" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-rlx-store-visits-to-relx-and-its-competitors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-ipo-valuation-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-months" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months</a></li>
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RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) has raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. 


In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.


Links to our previous notes:




RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration 
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops
RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation
RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months



RLX Technology IPO Trading - We Won't Be Chasing

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to about US$3.6bn in its accelerated primary placement. In this note, we take a look at deal dynamics, December auto sales, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise up to about US$3.6bn in its accelerated primary placement. In this note, we take a look at deal dynamics, December auto sales, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

BYD (比亚迪汽车) Placement - A Well Anticipated Placement with Strong Momentum

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be overtaken by Xpeng and Li Auto - and that would be the start point of its share performance weakness.NIO has no new car model this year. This would be a risk to the company's market share, while Tesla Shanghai's Model Y and Xpeng P5 would definitely gain market share. eT7, the first sedan of NIO to be delivered in 1Q2021, is almost twice as expensive as Xpeng P7, with very close performance and looks. This makes eT7 difficult to have big sales volume.Promised solid-state battery with1000km NEDC range is still under R&amp;D and  would not come until 4Q2020. NIO cars NEDC range would remain shorter than its peers for at least another two years.What exactly NAD could do is unclear. Only information about NAD is that the hardware employed would have 7 times TOPs as Tesla's. While Xpeng's navigated autopilot (NGP) is coming in 1Q2021 with great feedback on its trial version.Second generation battery swap station doubled battery capacity, but the overall station network build-up would remain behind original schedule.

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be overtaken by Xpeng and Li Auto - and that would be the start point of its share performance weakness.NIO has no new car model this year. This would be a risk to the company's market share, while Tesla Shanghai's Model Y and Xpeng P5 would definitely gain market share. eT7, the first sedan of NIO to be delivered in 1Q2021, is almost twice as expensive as Xpeng P7, with very close performance and looks. This makes eT7 difficult to have big sales volume.Promised solid-state battery with1000km NEDC range is still under R&amp;D and  would not come until 4Q2020. NIO cars NEDC range would remain shorter than its peers for at least another two years.What exactly NAD could do is unclear. Only information about NAD is that the hardware employed would have 7 times TOPs as Tesla's. While Xpeng's navigated autopilot (NGP) is coming in 1Q2021 with great feedback on its trial version.Second generation battery swap station doubled battery capacity, but the overall station network build-up would remain behind original schedule.

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

Tesla – Threats from the Taycan and Lucid Air

With Tesla down more than 20% from its recent highs, we examine the prospects for the EV bubble finally popping as competition intensifies just as...

Mio Kato

Xpeng - Lock-Up Period Expiry Concerns Create Buying Opportunity

Xpeng's share performance has been weak recently. We believe this is mainly due to concerns in the market on the IPO lock-up period expiring.

Victoria Li

RLX Technology IPO Trading - We Won't Be Chasing

RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) raised around US$1.4bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of...

Sumeet Singh

BYD (比亚迪汽车) Placement - A Well Anticipated Placement with Strong Momentum

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise up to about US$3.6bn in its primary placement. In this note, we take a look at deal dynamics, December auto...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

NIO: NIO Day Unveils Downside Risks

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be...

Victoria Li

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