IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
In ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Although we see upside potential for Xpeng’s FY24E sales volume and revise it up to 0.26mn units, its low GPM could persist until 1H24E</li><li>. We believe the new-model effect from the G6 has been priced in and its current valuation is fair. Its smart-EV brand image could be challenged by Huawei.</li><li>3Q23 GPM miss. Xpeng’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than we had projected. Even excluding the higher-than-expected inventory write-down for the G3i, GPM in 3Q23 was still worse than our prior forecast, partially reflecting the fierce competition that Xpeng faces.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. Although we see upside potential for Xpeng’s FY24E sales volume and revise it up to 0.26mn units, its low GPM could persist until 1H24E. We believe the new-model effect from the G6 has been priced in and its current valuation is fair. Its smart-EV brand image could be challenged by Huawei.3Q23 GPM miss. Xpeng’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than we had projected. Even excluding the higher-than-expected inventory write-down for the G3i, GPM in 3Q23 was still worse than our prior forecast, partially reflecting the fierce competition that Xpeng faces.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – GPM Pressure Persists Despite Possible Sales Beat

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)</li>
<li>981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Tata Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a> (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and provided our initial thoughts on valutions. In this note we talk about the RHP updates.</li>
</ul>



Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO.
Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and provided our initial thoughts on valutions. In this note we talk about the RHP updates.


Tata Technologies Pre-IPO - RHP Updates - Headline Growth Picking Up

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>ZEEKR, a fast-growing premium BEV maker, filed its F-1 last week. The company is going public through an IPO and offering ADSs of a Cayman Islands holding company.</li>
<li>In 2022, Geely agreed to spin off ZEEKR and list its EV maker in Asia/the U.S. The company has raised ~$1.6B and was backed by Geely and top-tier investors.</li>
<li>Geely Auto will hold 50%+ of the voting power upon completing an IPO. ZEEKR’s last round was a $750M Series A in February 2023 at a $13B post-money valuation. </li>
</ul>


ZEEKR, a fast-growing premium BEV maker, filed its F-1 last week. The company is going public through an IPO and offering ADSs of a Cayman Islands holding company.
In 2022, Geely agreed to spin off ZEEKR and list its EV maker in Asia/the U.S. The company has raised ~$1.6B and was backed by Geely and top-tier investors.
Geely Auto will hold 50%+ of the voting power upon completing an IPO. ZEEKR’s last round was a $750M Series A in February 2023 at a $13B post-money valuation. 


ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – GPM Pressure Persists Despite Possible Sales Beat

Maintain HOLD. Although we see upside potential for Xpeng’s FY24E sales volume and revise it up to 0.26mn units, its low GPM could persist until 1H24E

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tata Technologies Pre-IPO - RHP Updates - Headline Growth Picking Up

Tata Technologies is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO. We have looked at its past performance and valuation in our earlier...

Sumeet Singh

ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution

A Geely-backed premium EV maker, ZEEKR, plans to go public in the United States and raise up to $1B, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading...

Andrei Zakharov

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – GPM Pressure Persists Despite Possible Sales Beat

Maintain HOLD. Although we see upside potential for Xpeng’s FY24E sales volume and revise it up to 0.26mn units, its low GPM could persist until 1H24E

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

​Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tata Technologies Pre-IPO - RHP Updates - Headline Growth Picking Up

Tata Technologies is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO. We have looked at its past performance and valuation in our earlier...

Sumeet Singh

ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution

A Geely-backed premium EV maker, ZEEKR, plans to go public in the United States and raise up to $1B, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading...

Andrei Zakharov

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....