Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Call to sell XPEV down to the 38/40 buy support unfolding and the lift off of this buy zone is compelling but will face some late December headwinds.</li>
<li>38 and 47 are the immediate breakout points. Late December headwinds stem for a weaker China and US chart posture.</li>
<li>Trendline, price and the 200 day moving average support at 38 is a compelling buy zone within the rising channel.  </li>
</ul>


Call to sell XPEV down to the 38/40 buy support unfolding and the lift off of this buy zone is compelling but will face some late December headwinds.
38 and 47 are the immediate breakout points. Late December headwinds stem for a weaker China and US chart posture.
Trendline, price and the 200 day moving average support at 38 is a compelling buy zone within the rising channel.  


Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We model GF3 production to reach 65+K, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>  to delivery 45-50K onshore in December, China is to reach ~30+% global deliveries. </li>
<li>We model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>  production to reach ~11K in December, Q4 deliveries are likely miss, without "manipulation"; </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a>  Zhaoqing factory production declines MoM, but Q4 deliveries are set to beat guidance due to stronger than expected G3i orders. </li>
</ul>


We model GF3 production to reach 65+K, and Tesla Motors (TSLA US)  to delivery 45-50K onshore in December, China is to reach ~30+% global deliveries. 
We model NIO Inc (NIO US)  production to reach ~11K in December, Q4 deliveries are likely miss, without "manipulation"; 

Xpeng (XPEV US)  Zhaoqing factory production declines MoM, but Q4 deliveries are set to beat guidance due to stronger than expected G3i orders. 


China NEV Week 49 2021 Update: TSLA, NIO, XPEV Production, Deliveries

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>China’s favourable policies have been important drivers of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market</li>
<li>However, we are starting to see renewed efforts for the NEV sector to wean off policy support while traditional automakers are becoming increasingly competitive in this space</li>
<li>We discuss the latest NEV sector policy changes and its implications </li>
</ul>


China’s favourable policies have been important drivers of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market
However, we are starting to see renewed efforts for the NEV sector to wean off policy support while traditional automakers are becoming increasingly competitive in this space
We discuss the latest NEV sector policy changes and its implications 


China's EV Sector Policy Support Wean-Off and Its Implications

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Share performance of XPEV.US has been hit by market's fear on Chinese stocks' delisting in US market.  Xpeng's share price fell from US$55 to US$43.8 in three trading days.</li>
<li>We believe it's a good timing for US investors to switch to 9868.HK from XPEV.US, as HK share performance was hurt as well and has brought a great buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Fundamentally, Xpeng's monthly delivery hit a new high in Nov. Lately, EV batteries shortage is hitting Xpeng and may lead to lower than expected monthly delivery. Buy opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Share performance of XPEV.US has been hit by market's fear on Chinese stocks' delisting in US market.  Xpeng's share price fell from US$55 to US$43.8 in three trading days.
We believe it's a good timing for US investors to switch to 9868.HK from XPEV.US, as HK share performance was hurt as well and has brought a great buying opportunity.
Fundamentally, Xpeng's monthly delivery hit a new high in Nov. Lately, EV batteries shortage is hitting Xpeng and may lead to lower than expected monthly delivery. Buy opportunity.


Xpeng: Buying Opportunity on Dual Short-Term Headwinds

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Xpeng Long Entry Hit

Call to sell XPEV down to the 38/40 buy support unfolding and the lift off of this buy zone is compelling but will face some late December headwinds.

Thomas Schroeder

China NEV Week 49 2021 Update: TSLA, NIO, XPEV Production, Deliveries

Weekly update on TSLA, NIO and XPEV production and delivery data in China: TSLA China likely exceed 92K, XPEV 38K, NIO 23-24K in Q4, respectively.

JL Warren Capital

China's EV Sector Policy Support Wean-Off and Its Implications

China's NEV sector is weaning off policy support while traditional automakers are becoming increasingly competitive. We discuss the latest NEV...

Jason Yap, CFA

Xpeng: Buying Opportunity on Dual Short-Term Headwinds

We believe it's a good timing for US investors to switch to 9868.HK from XPEV.US, as HK share performance was hurt as well and has brought a great...

Victoria Li

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