Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight’s (MFT) Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update heralds the dramatic return to synchronised growth.</li><li>PBT for the first 16 weeks was up +78% on the prior year, driven by synchronised growth across all geographies and all products.</li><li>That said, with the earnings cycle now positively back in upgrade territory, and valuation levels by no means stretched, we reiterate an OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

Mainfreight’s (MFT) Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update heralds the dramatic return to synchronised growth.PBT for the first 16 weeks was up +78% on the prior year, driven by synchronised growth across all geographies and all products.That said, with the earnings cycle now positively back in upgrade territory, and valuation levels by no means stretched, we reiterate an OUTPERFORM rating.

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July 2026.</li><li>Moreover, we expect the update to be supportive of full-year consensus growth expectations (PBT +13% against the prior year), with risk to the upside.</li><li>Trading at ~22x one-year forward PE, MFT is at a meaningful discount to the average multiple of its closest listed peers—DSV (DSV.CO), Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN.S), and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.O).</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July 2026.Moreover, we expect the update to be supportive of full-year consensus growth expectations (PBT +13% against the prior year), with risk to the upside.Trading at ~22x one-year forward PE, MFT is at a meaningful discount to the average multiple of its closest listed peers—DSV (DSV.CO), Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN.S), and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.O).

Mainfreight ASM to Confirm Strong Start to FY27

<ul><li>Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market expectations.</li><li>The result read-through for MFT is modestly positive with improving air &amp; sea freight conditions (both rates and volumes) particularly on eastbound Transpacific trade lanes.</li><li>Air freight: The stand-out feature in the result benefiting from market share gains and favourable mix (from semiconductors and cloud infrastructure growth).</li></ul>

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market expectations.The result read-through for MFT is modestly positive with improving air &amp; sea freight conditions (both rates and volumes) particularly on eastbound Transpacific trade lanes.Air freight: The stand-out feature in the result benefiting from market share gains and favourable mix (from semiconductors and cloud infrastructure growth).

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - K+N Q2 Read-Through

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biden-covid-19-response-plan-overview-of-its-inherent-investment-themes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45631" rel="noopener">Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes</a>). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:<ol>
<li>
Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.</li>
<li>
Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.</li>
<li>
Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.</li>
</ol>

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:

Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.

Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.

Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

United States

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides logistics services. The Company offers expedited airfreight forwarding, warehousing management, drayage, freight brokerage, intermodal, transportation, and reverse logistics. XPO Logistics serves customers throughout North America.

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Xpo Logistics (XPO US)

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

Mainfreight Boom

Mainfreight’s (MFT) Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update heralds the dramatic return to synchronised growth. PBT for the first 16...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight ASM to Confirm Strong Start to FY27

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - K+N Q2 Read-Through

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market...

Forsyth Barr

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

Biden's COVID-19 response plan earmarks US$25 billion to vaccines, but with a twist. His emphasis is vaccine distribution, not development. That...

Kyle Rudden

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