Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.</p>

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

<p>Our long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The weight of the evidence still points to further upside, allowing, of course, for occasional backing and filling. That said, we are selective about new buy recommendations.  In today’s report we provide a recap of our investment thesis and sector weightings, and highlight actionable ideas within cyclical Groups, including Air Freight &amp; Logistics, Truckers, and Paper &amp; Packaging.</p>

Our long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The weight of the evidence still points to further upside, allowing, of course, for occasional backing and filling. That said, we are selective about new buy recommendations.  In today’s report we provide a recap of our investment thesis and sector weightings, and highlight actionable ideas within cyclical Groups, including Air Freight &amp; Logistics, Truckers, and Paper &amp; Packaging.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.</li><li>After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.</li><li>Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.</li></ul>

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>XPO Logistics recently reported its second-quarter results, revealing a mixed yet solid performance amid a challenging freight environment.</li><li>The company's revenue remained stable year-over-year at $2.1 billion, showing a 6% sequential increase from the first quarter.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA stood at $340 million, slightly down by 1% compared to the previous year, although the North American Less-than-Truckload (LTL) segment saw a marginal EBITDA increase to $300 million, expanding its margin by 90 basis points to 24.2%.</li></ul>

XPO Logistics recently reported its second-quarter results, revealing a mixed yet solid performance amid a challenging freight environment.The company's revenue remained stable year-over-year at $2.1 billion, showing a 6% sequential increase from the first quarter.Adjusted EBITDA stood at $340 million, slightly down by 1% compared to the previous year, although the North American Less-than-Truckload (LTL) segment saw a marginal EBITDA increase to $300 million, expanding its margin by 90 basis points to 24.2%.

XPO Inc: Is The Growth in Local Channels Here To Stay?

<ul><li>XPO Inc., a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, recently presented its first-quarter financial results for 2025.</li><li>The results highlighted both the company's strengths and the challenges it faces in the current economic climate.</li><li>XPO reported first-quarter revenue of $2 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $278 million.</li></ul>

XPO Inc., a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, recently presented its first-quarter financial results for 2025.The results highlighted both the company's strengths and the challenges it faces in the current economic climate.XPO reported first-quarter revenue of $2 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $278 million.

XPO Logistics: A Tale Of Financial Prudence & Strategic Investments To Drive Growth!

United States

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides logistics services. The Company offers expedited airfreight forwarding, warehousing management, drayage, freight brokerage, intermodal, transportation, and reverse logistics. XPO Logistics serves customers throughout North America.

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Xpo Logistics (XPO US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy

Our long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The weight of the evidence still points to further upside, allowing, of course, for occasional...

Vermilion Research

Mainfreight Freighting Re-Rating

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.

Forsyth Barr

XPO Inc: Is The Growth in Local Channels Here To Stay?

XPO Logistics recently reported its second-quarter results, revealing a mixed yet solid performance amid a challenging freight environment. The...

Baptista Research

XPO Logistics: A Tale Of Financial Prudence & Strategic Investments To Drive Growth!

XPO Inc., a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, recently presented its first-quarter financial results for...

Baptista Research

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