Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a>'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.</li>
<li>Palliser has a point. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem (051910 KS)</a> should pare down its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?</li>
<li>The latest twist in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.</li>
</ul>



Nidec (6594 JP)'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

<ul>
<li>As first discussed back in May (see <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.</li>
<li>All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bcpg-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24051:1" rel="noopener">BCPG (BCPG TB)</a> (up), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-foods-group-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24053:1" rel="noopener">Thai Foods Group (TFG TB)</a> (down).</li>
</ul>


As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.
All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in BCPG (BCPG TB) (up), and Thai Foods Group (TFG TB) (down).


Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Charoen Pokphand Foods / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPF announced a share repurchase program of up to 350mn shares, representing 4.16% of total outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of Bt8.0bn.</li><li>CPF has sufficient financial strength to undertake the share repurchase program.</li><li>If the buyback program is fully executed, EPS, DPS, and fair value could increase by about 4%.</li></ul>

CPF announced a share repurchase program of up to 350mn shares, representing 4.16% of total outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of Bt8.0bn.CPF has sufficient financial strength to undertake the share repurchase program.If the buyback program is fully executed, EPS, DPS, and fair value could increase by about 4%.

CPF TB: Share Repurchase Program Of Up To Bt8.0bn During October 8, 2025

<ul><li>BTG announced a share buyback of up to 85mn shares (4.39% of total shares) with a maximum budget of Bt2bn.</li><li>KTX projects that by year-end 2025, BTG will report a net D/E ratio of 0.6x, cash on hand of Bt3.9bn, CFO of Bt12.7bn, and FCF of Bt6.2bn.</li><li>The share buyback is expected to enhance per-share performance (e.g., EPS and DPS) and fair value by around 4% in 2026E.</li></ul>

BTG announced a share buyback of up to 85mn shares (4.39% of total shares) with a maximum budget of Bt2bn.KTX projects that by year-end 2025, BTG will report a net D/E ratio of 0.6x, cash on hand of Bt3.9bn, CFO of Bt12.7bn, and FCF of Bt6.2bn.The share buyback is expected to enhance per-share performance (e.g., EPS and DPS) and fair value by around 4% in 2026E.

BETAGRO (BTG): Share Buyback Program of Up to Bt2bn During Sep 29, 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

Thailand

XSpring Capital Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based financial services firm that invests in diverse businesses both domestically and internationally. It operates through five segments: Securities, Fund Asset Management, Digital Assets, Asset Management, and Investment and Other, offering services like securities brokerage, digital asset dealing, and wealth management. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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XSpring Capital (XPG TB)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Pledged shares in the four key Prakitchaiwattana-held stocks, including Krungthai Card, were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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