Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nebius Group reported robust results for the second quarter of 2026, marked by significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic advancements to scale capacity.</li><li>The company grew group revenue by 454% year-over-year to $582 million, with its Nebius AI business contributing 98% of group revenue and growing 514% annually to $575 million.</li><li>Annualized run rate revenue increased to $3 billion by June 30, reflecting higher utilization rates, capacity additions from Q1, and revenue from newly introduced asset-light models and recent acquisitions.</li></ul>

Nebius Group reported robust results for the second quarter of 2026, marked by significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic advancements to scale capacity.The company grew group revenue by 454% year-over-year to $582 million, with its Nebius AI business contributing 98% of group revenue and growing 514% annually to $575 million.Annualized run rate revenue increased to $3 billion by June 30, reflecting higher utilization rates, capacity additions from Q1, and revenue from newly introduced asset-light models and recent acquisitions.

Nebius Group’s $9 Billion Customer Prepayments Could Rewrite The AI Financing Model!

<ul><li>Nebius Group reported substantial growth and strategic progress in the second quarter of 2026, led by Nebius AI, which contributed 98% of total revenue.</li><li>Group revenue increased 454% year-over-year to $582 million and 46% sequentially.</li><li>Annualized run rate revenue reached $3 billion by June, nearly six times the prior year-end level.</li></ul>

Nebius Group reported substantial growth and strategic progress in the second quarter of 2026, led by Nebius AI, which contributed 98% of total revenue.Group revenue increased 454% year-over-year to $582 million and 46% sequentially.Annualized run rate revenue reached $3 billion by June, nearly six times the prior year-end level.

Nebius Group's $9 Billion Funding Engine: Can AI Capacity Keep Scaling This Fast?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The (Compute) Price is…Right? It’s hard to argue with Nebius’ 2Q results; the market apparently agreed, with shares closing up 34% on August 12.</li><li>Nebius now has joined the $50M/MW/year club (on certain deals); stepping back, industry analysts like SemiAnalysis have estimated that the frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic can generate over $100/MW/year, so it seems like these prices are justifiable at the moment.</li><li>That said, the sudden availability of an open-weight model (Kimi K3) that is competitive with frontier labs at significantly lower list prices sheds some potential long-term doubts on the sustainability of that revenue. </li></ul>

The (Compute) Price is…Right? It’s hard to argue with Nebius’ 2Q results; the market apparently agreed, with shares closing up 34% on August 12.Nebius now has joined the $50M/MW/year club (on certain deals); stepping back, industry analysts like SemiAnalysis have estimated that the frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic can generate over $100/MW/year, so it seems like these prices are justifiable at the moment.That said, the sudden availability of an open-weight model (Kimi K3) that is competitive with frontier labs at significantly lower list prices sheds some potential long-term doubts on the sustainability of that revenue. 

NBIS: 2Q26 Results; The (Compute) Price Is Right?

<div><ul><li>Lowering near-term estimates on capacity timing, not demand. </li><li>We are reducing our 2Q26 revenue estimate to $550MM from $600MM and our 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $146MM from $185MM. </li><li>This still reflects 2Q revenue growth of 38% Q/Q and 423% Y/Y, although our estimate is about 5% below consensus. </li></ul></div>

Lowering near-term estimates on capacity timing, not demand. We are reducing our 2Q26 revenue estimate to $550MM from $600MM and our 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $146MM from $185MM. This still reflects 2Q revenue growth of 38% Q/Q and 423% Y/Y, although our estimate is about 5% below consensus. 

NBIS: Tweaking Estimates; Strong Demand, but Potential Capacity Bottlenecks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Horizon Quantum Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The BStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index represents the largest and most liquid global companies in the field of ML and Quantum computing.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the index in June 2026 and a turnover of 20% of the index, which is huge.  US$1.175bn one-way.</li>
<li>The equal-weighting scheme produces interesting flows for the index. We see US$64+mm to trade for each ADD, but so much other movement means LOTS of capping/funding trades.</li>
</ul>


The BStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index represents the largest and most liquid global companies in the field of ML and Quantum computing.
There will be five ADDs for the index in June 2026 and a turnover of 20% of the index, which is huge.  US$1.175bn one-way.
The equal-weighting scheme produces interesting flows for the index. We see US$64+mm to trade for each ADD, but so much other movement means LOTS of capping/funding trades.


[Quiddity Index] BStar ML and Quantum Computing Index Jun26 Rebal Results: 5 ADDs; US$1.18bn One Way

Netherlands

Nebius Group is a technology company providing infrastructure and services to AI builders globally. The group's core business, Nebius, is an AI-centric cloud platform built for AI workloads. Nebius Group serves customers worldwide.

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Nebius Group (NBIS US)

Nebius Group’s $9 Billion Customer Prepayments Could Rewrite The AI Financing Model!

Nebius Group reported robust results for the second quarter of 2026, marked by significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic...

Baptista Research

Nebius Group's $9 Billion Funding Engine: Can AI Capacity Keep Scaling This Fast?

Nebius Group reported substantial growth and strategic progress in the second quarter of 2026, led by Nebius AI, which contributed 98% of total...

Baptista Research

NBIS: 2Q26 Results; The (Compute) Price Is Right?

The (Compute) Price is…Right? It’s hard to argue with Nebius’ 2Q results; the market apparently agreed, with shares closing up 34% on August 12.

Water Tower Research

NBIS: Tweaking Estimates; Strong Demand, but Potential Capacity Bottlenecks

We are reducing our 2Q26 revenue estimate to $550MM from $600MM and our 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $146MM from $185MM.

Water Tower Research

[Quiddity Index] BStar ML and Quantum Computing Index Jun26 Rebal Results: 5 ADDs; US$1.18bn One Way

The Bstar ML And Quantum Computing Index gets rebalanced in June and Dec. This time it sees a whopping 22% turnover (one-way) against its nearly...

Travis Lundy

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