Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yang Ming Marine Transport / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation starting on 20 June and ending on 26 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 17.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of TWD 158bn (US$5.3bn). There are 10 stocks with over 5 days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that have same-way or opposing flows from other index trackers over the next couple of weeks and those stocks could outperform/underperform their peers.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation starting on 20 June and ending on 26 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 17.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of TWD 158bn (US$5.3bn). There are 10 stocks with over 5 days of ADV to trade.
There are a few stocks that have same-way or opposing flows from other index trackers over the next couple of weeks and those stocks could outperform/underperform their peers.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Flow Overlap

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 363bn (US$12.1bn).</li>
<li>Following a change in methodology, there could be 16 adds and 6 deletes in June with an estimated one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn.</li>
<li>We expect the adds to outperform the deletes over the next few days, following which reversion could set in.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 363bn (US$12.1bn).
Following a change in methodology, there could be 16 adds and 6 deletes in June with an estimated one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn.
We expect the adds to outperform the deletes over the next few days, following which reversion could set in.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebal Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$9bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.</li>
<li>An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.</li>
</ul>


There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.


TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April</li>
<li>In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels</li>
<li>Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do <em>not</em> reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April
In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels
Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do not reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT


Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.</li>
<li>Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.</li>
<li>The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

Taiwan

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

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Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Flow Overlap

There are 5 changes in June. One-way turnover is around 17.7% and round-trip trade is TWD US$5.3bn. 10 stocks have over 5x ADV to trade. Some...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebal Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$9bn Trade

A change in methodology could result in 16 adds and 6 deletes in June leading to one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

There are 10 index changes in May. Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and trade is US$2.2bn. 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade. Multiple stocks...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

April revenue figures from Evergreen and Yang Ming suggest a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, which has not been reflected in YTD or Y/Y share...

Tracking Traffic

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Flow Overlap

There are 5 changes in June. One-way turnover is around 17.7% and round-trip trade is TWD US$5.3bn. 10 stocks have over 5x ADV to trade. Some...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebal Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$9bn Trade

A change in methodology could result in 16 adds and 6 deletes in June leading to one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

There are 10 index changes in May. Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and trade is US$2.2bn. 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade. Multiple stocks...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

April revenue figures from Evergreen and Yang Ming suggest a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, which has not been reflected in YTD or Y/Y share...

Tracking Traffic

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

​Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Flow Overlap

Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...