Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Yang Ming Marine Transport / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airtac-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20538:1" rel="noopener">Airtac International (1590 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> will also be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be increased flow and impact from the passive buying.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> but there is a similar trend in other stocks from the sector.</li>
</ul>



Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) will replace Airtac International (1590 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 December.

Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) will also be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be increased flow and impact from the passive buying.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume in Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) but there is a similar trend in other stocks from the sector.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Big Buying in Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT) In Two Weeks

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The base date for the December 2024 review was 25th November 2024. <em><strong>However, after the base date, the index selection methodology has been changed.</strong></em>
</li>
<li>As a result, we are revising our expectations for index changes and flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
The base date for the December 2024 review was 25th November 2024. However, after the base date, the index selection methodology has been changed.

As a result, we are revising our expectations for index changes and flow expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airtac-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20538:1" rel="noopener">Airtac International (1590 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> is also expected to be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be buying from multiple trackers.</li>
<li>Shorts are near their lows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> while there has been covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airtac-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20538:1" rel="noopener">Airtac International (1590 TT)</a> after an increase in the last few months.</li>
</ul>



Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December, replacing Airtac International (1590 TT). 

Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) is also expected to be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be buying from multiple trackers.
Shorts are near their lows in Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) while there has been covering in Airtac International (1590 TT) after an increase in the last few months.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.</li>
<li>Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.</li>
<li>The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity</li>
<li>In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323</li>
<li>We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)</li>
</ul>


So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Taiwan

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

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Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Big Buying in Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT) In Two Weeks

Yang Ming Marine replaces Airtac in the Top50 ETF in December. Yang Ming Marine also has a bigger inclusion in December. Excess volume is higher in...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations

Our one-way flow expectations have increased from US$1.7bn to US$2.3bn for the TDIV Dec 24 index rebal event. Our expected number of index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)

Yang Ming Marine could replace Airtac in December. Yang Ming Marine could also be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF so there will be...

Brian Freitas

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Big Buying in Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT) In Two Weeks

Yang Ming Marine replaces Airtac in the Top50 ETF in December. Yang Ming Marine also has a bigger inclusion in December. Excess volume is higher in...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations

Our one-way flow expectations have increased from US$1.7bn to US$2.3bn for the TDIV Dec 24 index rebal event. Our expected number of index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)

Yang Ming Marine could replace Airtac in December. Yang Ming Marine could also be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF so there will be...

Brian Freitas

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

​Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Lower freight rates and load factor expansion signal a weaker outlook, with potential capacity return due to easing conflicts. FY25-26 forecasts...