Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years.  Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we expect it to hold long-term support at 24000.</li>
<li>The energy sector has been the clear beneficiary this year, with coal companies outperforming. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> share price has tumbled since the start of the war, amid questions about helium supply and prices following the bombing of Qatar facilities.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years.  Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we expect it to hold long-term support at 24000.
The energy sector has been the clear beneficiary this year, with coal companies outperforming. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) share price has tumbled since the start of the war, amid questions about helium supply and prices following the bombing of Qatar facilities.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are 26 companies with dividend yields of over 9% in FY25 based on consensus forecasts. With the slowdown in the US rate cut, they look attractive this year.</li>
<li>The top 5 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-new-university" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23626:1" rel="noopener">China New Higher Education (2001 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-management-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28895:1" rel="noopener">GreenTown Management (9979 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lever-style-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35760:1" rel="noopener">Lever Style (1346 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paradise-entertainment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3437:1" rel="noopener">Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-textiles-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12638:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Textiles (1382 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Key risks are their small-cap nature, potential issues with corporate governance, and low earnings quality when compared with banks and telcos.</li>
</ul>


There are 26 companies with dividend yields of over 9% in FY25 based on consensus forecasts. With the slowdown in the US rate cut, they look attractive this year.
The top 5 are China New Higher Education (2001 HK), GreenTown Management (9979 HK), Lever Style (1346 HK), Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK), and Pacific Textiles (1382 HK). 
Key risks are their small-cap nature, potential issues with corporate governance, and low earnings quality when compared with banks and telcos.


China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma, Innovent Bio, Minimax, Kuaishou, Ping An.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma, Innovent Bio, Minimax, Kuaishou, Ping An.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 28th): Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma, Minimax

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Central banks have set the stage for the next inflationary wave by moving to an easing bias despite higher inflation</li>
<li>The Federal Reserve, the BoJ, the ECB and the SNB all tilt to easing</li>
<li>US deficit spending together with China and Germany exiting an industrial recession bode well for industrial commodities</li>
</ul>


Central banks have set the stage for the next inflationary wave by moving to an easing bias despite higher inflation
The Federal Reserve, the BoJ, the ECB and the SNB all tilt to easing
US deficit spending together with China and Germany exiting an industrial recession bode well for industrial commodities


Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

China

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited operates coal businesses. The Company produces fine coal, blown coal, power coal, and coal chemical products. Yankuang Energy Group also conducts power generation, railway transport, machinery manufacturing, and heating businesses.

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Yankuang Energy Group (600188 CH)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years. Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we...

David Mudd

China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

Lever Style, one of the top 5 high yield stocks, has issued a positive profit alert with US$16.4-17.4m for FY24, or 5-12% YoY growth. Given the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 28th): Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma, Minimax

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years. Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we...

David Mudd

China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

Lever Style, one of the top 5 high yield stocks, has issued a positive profit alert with US$16.4-17.4m for FY24, or 5-12% YoY growth. Given the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 28th): Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma, Minimax

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Smic, Hua Hong Semi, Akeso, Yofc, Cspc Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

​Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...

Rikki Malik

Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...