US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

Yibin City Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yibin-city-commercial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39930:1" rel="noopener">Yibin City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (2596 HK)</a> is scheduled to debut on the HKEX on 13 January 2025 at a market capitalization of ~$1.6bn.</li>
<li>The IPO free float is 100% as the offered shares represent all the listed shares. However, the significant amount of unlisted shares result in a low fcap.</li>
<li>The security can be added at the June 2025 review if the stock price mimics the IPO debut of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks (325 HK)</a> and surges by ~84%.</li>
</ul>



Yibin City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (2596 HK) is scheduled to debut on the HKEX on 13 January 2025 at a market capitalization of ~$1.6bn.
The IPO free float is 100% as the offered shares represent all the listed shares. However, the significant amount of unlisted shares result in a low fcap.
The security can be added at the June 2025 review if the stock price mimics the IPO debut of Bloks (325 HK) and surges by ~84%.


Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.</li>
<li>Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> were the largest IPOs of the year while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40924:1" rel="noopener">PegBio (2565 HK)</a> has had the best return.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.</li>
<li>"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-drinda-new-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45252:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40924:1" rel="noopener">PegBio (2565 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-material-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45012:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duality-biotherapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43878:1" rel="noopener">Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unisound-ai-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36800:1" rel="noopener">Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.
"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK), PegBio (2565 HK), CaoCao (2643 HK), and Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK).  
"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK), Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK), CATL (3750 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK), and Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK). 


HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Bank (6122 HK)</a>, as discussed in<a href="https://skr.ma/UL5z1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice</a>
</li>
<li>This follows a similar bailout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jinzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21014:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)</a> in early 2024, as detailed in <a href="https://skr.ma/N19a2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.</a>
</li>
<li>Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  </li>
</ul>


Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice

This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.

Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  


Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a> in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.</li>
<li>Of the 14 stocks, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (1850960D CH)</a> as potential HSCI inclusions in June.</li>
<li>There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.</li>
</ul>


There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

China

Yibin City Commercial Bank Co., Ltd provides commercial bank services. The Company conducts deposits, loans, domestic settlement, bill discounting, government bond underwriting, insurance agency, wealth management, and other businesses. Yibin City Commercial Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Yibin City Commercial Bank (2596 HK)

Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT - OVERVIEW 2025

Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far. Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

This is largely an objective insight. There can be no guarantee/certainty why one bank may need to hoist the white flag, while another does not....

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There could be 3 adds to the HSCI and Southbound Stock Connect in June. There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks prior to June and the low float...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

​Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT - OVERVIEW 2025

Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far. Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

​1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

This is largely an objective insight. There can be no guarantee/certainty why one bank may need to hoist the white flag, while another does not....

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There could be 3 adds to the HSCI and Southbound Stock Connect in June. There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks prior to June and the low float...

Brian Freitas

Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...