Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenance</li></ul><ul><li>Asia cleared a swathe of supply in the third quarter, leaving it balanced to tight with less room to cover other markets.</li><li>Singapore’s exports fell for a second week, a slowdown that would further limit Asia’s spare supply if it continues as seasonal demand firms.</li></ul>

Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenanceAsia cleared a swathe of supply in the third quarter, leaving it balanced to tight with less room to cover other markets.Singapore’s exports fell for a second week, a slowdown that would further limit Asia’s spare supply if it continues as seasonal demand firms.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 9 Oct '26

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.</li>
<li>Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.</li>
<li>Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.</li>
</ul>


Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.
Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.
Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.


YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn

<ul><li>Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October.</li><li>A cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in early September for Europe passed through the Red Sea and Suez Canal in recent days.</li><li>A cargo loaded from South Korea in recent days headed to Northwest Europe, with arrival due in second-half November.</li></ul>

Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October.A cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in early September for Europe passed through the Red Sea and Suez Canal in recent days.A cargo loaded from South Korea in recent days headed to Northwest Europe, with arrival due in second-half November.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 9 October

<ul>
<li>YPF’s 2Q26 earnings strengthened sharply as shale scale, lower lifting costs and record refinery throughput amplified favorable pricing, driving EBITDA to US$2.8bn and net leverage to 1.19x.</li>
<li>Liquidity improved to adequate and free cash flow reached US$824mn, but rising capex shifts the credit test toward preserving balance-sheet gains as shale and LNG investment accelerates.</li>
<li>We move to Neutral on valuation and prefer the secured 9.500% 2031s, where higher spread and yield with shorter duration improve risk-adjusted value versus the 2034s.</li>
</ul>


YPF’s 2Q26 earnings strengthened sharply as shale scale, lower lifting costs and record refinery throughput amplified favorable pricing, driving EBITDA to US$2.8bn and net leverage to 1.19x.
Liquidity improved to adequate and free cash flow reached US$824mn, but rising capex shifts the credit test toward preserving balance-sheet gains as shale and LNG investment accelerates.
We move to Neutral on valuation and prefer the secured 9.500% 2031s, where higher spread and yield with shorter duration improve risk-adjusted value versus the 2034s.


YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

<ul><li>Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand in their regional markets</li></ul><ul><li>Singapore's export recovery shows how additional barrels are becoming available as earlier disruptions ease.</li><li>That extra Asian supply is now facing a competing call from within the region as demand recovers, while maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia will remove more production.</li></ul>

Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand in their regional marketsSingapore's export recovery shows how additional barrels are becoming available as earlier disruptions ease.That extra Asian supply is now facing a competing call from within the region as demand recovers, while maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia will remove more production.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 2 Oct '26

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 9 Oct '26

Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenance Asia...

Base Oil News

YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn

YPF’s larger tender materially improves the maturity profile with limited leverage impact, but the investment case remains about selective bond...

Leandro Gubler

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 9 October

Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October. A cargo...

Base Oil News

YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

YPF’s credit keeps improving as shale scale, cash flow and liquidity strengthen, but the curve’s re-rating shifts the opportunity from issuer beta...

Leandro Gubler

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 2 Oct '26

Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand...

Base Oil News

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