Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%</li>
<li>We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves</li>
<li>Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.</li>
</ul>


We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.


YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.</li><li>Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.</li><li>Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025.</li></ul>

US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

<ul><li>US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.</li><li>Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.</li><li>Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

<ul><li>US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm.</li><li>Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.</li><li>Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm.Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices. Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance...

Base Oil News

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm. Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

​"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices. Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance...

Base Oil News

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm. Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a...

Base Oil News

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."