Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. </li>
<li>Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal</li>
<li>Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. 
Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal
Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.


Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils values rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Firmer base oils values contrast with lower gasoil premium to crude oil, magnifying impact of rising base oils premium.</li><li>Rising base oils premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, especially in Europe and Asia.</li></ul>

Global base oils values rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.Firmer base oils values contrast with lower gasoil premium to crude oil, magnifying impact of rising base oils premium.Rising base oils premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, especially in Europe and Asia.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 March

<ul><li>US Group II base oils export prices mostly stay in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.</li><li>US’ steady price premium contrasts with strong rise in Asia Group II base oils export price premium to Singapore gasoil prices so far this year.</li><li>US Group I brightstock price rises vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils export prices mostly stay in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.US’ steady price premium contrasts with strong rise in Asia Group II base oils export price premium to Singapore gasoil prices so far this year.US Group I brightstock price rises vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 17 March

<ul><li>US base oils prices mostly hold firm in narrow range versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Margins edge higher mostly because of lower crude oil prices rather than rise in base oils prices.</li><li>Margins in Europe and Asia rise more strongly because of rise in base oils prices.</li></ul>

US base oils prices mostly hold firm in narrow range versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Margins edge higher mostly because of lower crude oil prices rather than rise in base oils prices.Margins in Europe and Asia rise more strongly because of rise in base oils prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

<ul><li>Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.</li><li>Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.</li><li>Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.</li></ul>

Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

4Q24 results show Minerva improving, YPF progressing, but Pemex remains high risk. Argentina's GDP beat estimates, but outlook depends on policy...

Leandro Gubler

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 March

Global base oils values rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices. Firmer base oils values contrast with lower gasoil premium to crude oil,...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 17 March

US Group II base oils export prices mostly stay in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil so far this year. US’ steady price premium contrasts with strong...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

US base oils prices mostly hold firm in narrow range versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Margins edge higher mostly because of lower crude oil...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to...

Base Oil News

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