Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Key Outcome: YPF’s shale transition is strengthening credit resilience, with 1Q26 EBITDA up 28.1% YoY, leverage down to 2.01x, and lifting costs at $8.8/boe.</li>
<li>Risk/Volatility: Valuation now requires more discipline after the rally, with YPF already trading materially inside Argentina sovereign risk and political-cycle volatility still relevant.</li>
<li>Valuation Driver: We still prefer the 8.250% 2034s as the best belly expression, while long-end extension offers insufficient spread pickup for the added duration.</li>
</ul>


Key Outcome: YPF’s shale transition is strengthening credit resilience, with 1Q26 EBITDA up 28.1% YoY, leverage down to 2.01x, and lifting costs at $8.8/boe.
Risk/Volatility: Valuation now requires more discipline after the rally, with YPF already trading materially inside Argentina sovereign risk and political-cycle volatility still relevant.
Valuation Driver: We still prefer the 8.250% 2034s as the best belly expression, while long-end extension offers insufficient spread pickup for the added duration.


YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.</li><li>A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.</li><li>Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.</li></ul>

Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September

<ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions</li></ul><ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.</li><li>China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.</li></ul>

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptionsThe base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

<ul><li>Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.</li><li>Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.</li><li>Asia's lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.</li></ul>

Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.Asia's lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.

Global Base Oils Supply Surplus Shrinks In June

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

YPF’s shale story is working, but spreads have already moved fast, making curve selection more important than broad beta exposure.

Leandro Gubler

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September

Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Supply Surplus Shrinks In June

Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America. Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June,...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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