Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.</li>
<li>Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.</li>
<li>At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.


YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Surge in Group II cargo loadings from Taiwan at end-July extended into early August, with a wave of shipments moving mostly to Southeast Asian markets, including the Philippines and Indonesia.</li><li>Cargo loaded from South Korea in early-July before heading to the US Gulf coast, arrived in recent days.</li><li>Singapore took delivery in the past week of its largest cargo from the UAE since last September, despite ongoing disruption to Middle East shipping.</li></ul>

Surge in Group II cargo loadings from Taiwan at end-July extended into early August, with a wave of shipments moving mostly to Southeast Asian markets, including the Philippines and Indonesia.Cargo loaded from South Korea in early-July before heading to the US Gulf coast, arrived in recent days.Singapore took delivery in the past week of its largest cargo from the UAE since last September, despite ongoing disruption to Middle East shipping.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 7 August

<ul><li>Global base oils markets grew more divided by region as Asia's broad supply softened Middle East disruptions, Europe's premium-grade supply drew on non-Middle East routes, though not enough to ease Group III tightness, and the US stayed structurally tighter.</li></ul><ul><li>Asia's broader supply base limited the impact of Middle East Group III disruptions, while the US stayed structurally tighter.</li><li>Singapore's prolonged production constraints kept imports elevated and exports subdued, giving rival Asian suppliers more time to strengthen relationships with buyers traditionally reliant on Singapore.</li></ul>

Global base oils markets grew more divided by region as Asia's broad supply softened Middle East disruptions, Europe's premium-grade supply drew on non-Middle East routes, though not enough to ease Group III tightness, and the US stayed structurally tighter.Asia's broader supply base limited the impact of Middle East Group III disruptions, while the US stayed structurally tighter.Singapore's prolonged production constraints kept imports elevated and exports subdued, giving rival Asian suppliers more time to strengthen relationships with buyers traditionally reliant on Singapore.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 07 Aug '26

<ul><li>Cargo-loadings from Taiwan extended their rebound, with a surge in shipments in the last 10 days of July.</li><li>Cargo carrying a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in the past week before heading to South Korea.</li><li>Shipments from Taiwan to South Korea often then move on to other markets like the Americas.</li></ul>

Cargo-loadings from Taiwan extended their rebound, with a surge in shipments in the last 10 days of July.Cargo carrying a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in the past week before heading to South Korea.Shipments from Taiwan to South Korea often then move on to other markets like the Americas.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 31 July

Middle East Group III disruptions entered a sixth month, keeping exports at multi-year lows, while maintenance among other Group III producers threatened to tighten supply further. South Korea and India continued filling part of the shortfall, Singapore became a net base oils importer for the first time in five years, and slower replacement cargoes from Europe and the US pointed to limited spare supply ahead of August.

Middle East Group III disruptions entered a sixth month, keeping exports at multi-year lows, while maintenance among other Group III producers threatened to tighten supply further. South Korea and India continued filling part of the shortfall, Singapore became a net base oils importer for the first time in five years, and slower replacement cargoes from Europe and the US pointed to limited spare supply ahead of August.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 31 Jul '26

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Shale growth, lower lifting costs, and reduced political risk strengthen YPF’s credit story. A must-read for investors seeking value in short...

Leandro Gubler

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 7 August

Surge in Group II cargo loadings from Taiwan at end-July extended into early August, with a wave of shipments moving mostly to Southeast Asian...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 07 Aug '26

Global base oils markets grew more divided by region as Asia's broad supply softened Middle East disruptions, Europe's premium-grade supply drew...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 31 July

Cargo-loadings from Taiwan extended their rebound, with a surge in shipments in the last 10 days of July. Cargo carrying a combination of Group II...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 31 Jul '26

Middle East Group III disruptions entered a sixth month, keeping exports at multi-year lows, while maintenance among other Group III producers...

Base Oil News

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