Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC <a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202501080360.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another <a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202501070351.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA article</a> suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.</li>
<li>Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong <em>Bank</em> employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.</li>
<li>There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread - still wide - is narrowing.</li>
</ul>


The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread - still wide - is narrowing.


Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) - Waiting on the FSC

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

Far Eastern New Century / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 indices for the September 2024 index rebal event was confirmed after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.</li>
<li>There will be one change for the T50 index and four separate changes for the T100 index. One of the T100 changes will also trigger a TDIV index deletion.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our final estimates for the index flows for ADDs/DELs and capping flows for the TDIV index.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 indices for the September 2024 index rebal event was confirmed after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.
There will be one change for the T50 index and four separate changes for the T100 index. One of the T100 changes will also trigger a TDIV index deletion.
In this insight, we have presented our final estimates for the index flows for ADDs/DELs and capping flows for the TDIV index.


Quiddity TDIV/50/​​​100 Sep 24 Rebal: 100% Hit Rate; Perfectly Positioned for Our Trade

<ul>
<li>The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.</li>
<li>Today is the base date for determining constituent weights/capping for the TDIV index September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one deletion in September 2024 and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be around US$253mn.</li>
</ul>


The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
Today is the base date for determining constituent weights/capping for the TDIV index September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect one deletion in September 2024 and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be around US$253mn.


Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: Final Expectations; One Deletion; US$253mn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 5 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation taking place from 21-27 June.</li>
<li>The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 12.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 37.2bn (US$1.15bn).</li>
<li>The changes are in line with our forecasts with one exception. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uni-president-enterprises-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7973:1" rel="noopener">Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT)</a> was not added and Yulon Finance (9941 TT) was added instead.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation taking place from 21-27 June.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 12.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 37.2bn (US$1.15bn).
The changes are in line with our forecasts with one exception. Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT) was not added and Yulon Finance (9941 TT) was added instead.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd. (2105 TT)

<ul>
<li>There are 5 adds and 4 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December with implementation taking place from 15-21 December.</li>
<li>The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 16.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.26bn.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in a lot of the adds/deletes and the real action could be in the other stocks with capping and/or funding flows.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 adds and 4 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December with implementation taking place from 15-21 December.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 16.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.26bn.
There will be positioning in a lot of the adds/deletes and the real action could be in the other stocks with capping and/or funding flows.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

Taiwan

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

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Yuanta Financial Holding Co (2885 TT)

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) - Waiting on the FSC

The FSC is considering the merger case for Shin Kong and Taishin according to local press reports. The timing of the articles suggest approval...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Sep 24 Rebal: 100% Hit Rate; Perfectly Positioned for Our Trade

The TDIV index change flows and capping flows will be equally distributed over five trading days (close of trading on 20th, 23rd, 24th, 25th, and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: Final Expectations; One Deletion; US$253mn One-Way

There are 30 expected inflow names and 20 expected outflow names. The top inflow names could outperform the top outflow names over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

The ETF starts rebalancing at the close today and that will continue over the next 4 trading days. Excluding BizLink, the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

On average, the adds have outperformed the deletes by 5.2% since the announcement of the changes and by 1.12% since the start of the implementation...

Brian Freitas

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Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) - Waiting on the FSC

The FSC is considering the merger case for Shin Kong and Taishin according to local press reports. The timing of the articles suggest approval...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity TDIV/50/​​​100 Sep 24 Rebal: 100% Hit Rate; Perfectly Positioned for Our Trade

The TDIV index change flows and capping flows will be equally distributed over five trading days (close of trading on 20th, 23rd, 24th, 25th, and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: Final Expectations; One Deletion; US$253mn One-Way

There are 30 expected inflow names and 20 expected outflow names. The top inflow names could outperform the top outflow names over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

The ETF starts rebalancing at the close today and that will continue over the next 4 trading days. Excluding BizLink, the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

On average, the adds have outperformed the deletes by 5.2% since the announcement of the changes and by 1.12% since the start of the implementation...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Sep 24 Rebal: 100% Hit Rate; Perfectly Positioned for Our Trade

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover