IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Langham Hospitality Investments / Event-Driven

Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/langham-hospitality-inv-ss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:760:1" rel="noopener">Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK)</a> received a notice from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eagle-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:758:1" rel="noopener">Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK)</a>, the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.</li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.</li>
<li>Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK) received a notice from Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK), the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.
The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.
Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.


Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.</li>
<li>FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.</li>
<li>Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.</li>
</ul>


400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.
FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.
Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.


Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust / Credit

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

<ul>
<li>UST yields climbed yesterday, led by the front-end. This was as the market further pared Fed rate-cut expectations, while the back-end was supported by good demand for a 30Y notes auction.</li>
<li>Fed-dated OIS are now pricing in 20 bps of rate cuts for 2026 (vs. 44 bps as of last Friday).</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST jumped 9 bps to 3.74%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.26%. </li>
</ul>


UST yields climbed yesterday, led by the front-end. This was as the market further pared Fed rate-cut expectations, while the back-end was supported by good demand for a 30Y notes auction.
Fed-dated OIS are now pricing in 20 bps of rate cuts for 2026 (vs. 44 bps as of last Friday).
The yield on the 2Y UST jumped 9 bps to 3.74%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.26%. 


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT</li>
<li>UST yields jumped yesterday, alongside a sell-off in equities, as the Sell America theme resurfaced following US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Europe over Greenland. The UST curve bear-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST unchanged at 3.60%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 6 bps to 4.29%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.1% and 2.4% to 6,797 and 22,954, respectively.</li>
<li>A number of corporate issuers have placed their bond issuances on hold, due to market jitters amid the US-Europe tensions over Greenland. In Asia, China Oil &amp; Gas has postponed its planned USD notes issuance this morning, citing market volatility. The company began marketing an issuance of 3NC2 notes this week, with final guidance at 7%.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT
UST yields jumped yesterday, alongside a sell-off in equities, as the Sell America theme resurfaced following US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Europe over Greenland. The UST curve bear-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST unchanged at 3.60%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 6 bps to 4.29%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.1% and 2.4% to 6,797 and 22,954, respectively.
A number of corporate issuers have placed their bond issuances on hold, due to market jitters amid the US-Europe tensions over Greenland. In Asia, China Oil &amp; Gas has postponed its planned USD notes issuance this morning, citing market volatility. The company began marketing an issuance of 3NC2 notes this week, with final guidance at 7%.


Hong Kong

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is a Hong Kong-listed real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the leasing of commercial properties in mainland China. Its portfolio includes Grade-A offices, commercial complexes, retail businesses, hotels, serviced apartments, and professional clothing markets. The company is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong, and was incorporated in 1997.

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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47%...

Arun George

Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Frasers Hospitality Trust is trading as if TCC might make another offer. But peers in Singapore/Asia are getting crushed, and globally CRE is in...

Travis Lundy

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

UST yields climbed yesterday, led by the front-end. This was as the market further pared Fed rate-cut expectations, while the back-end was...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT UST yields jumped yesterday,...

Lucror Analytics

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