Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Yum China Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> raised around US$2.5bn in its Hong Kong secondary listing.</p>
<p>I have covered the deal background in:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-early-look-relatively-bigger-deal-should-have-a-relatively-bigger-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact,</a> and</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-relatively-bigger-should-offer-a-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount</a>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<div id="annotable-executive_summary-2">In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.</div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p><strong>Links to my previous notes on China ADRs secondary listing:</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huazhu-hk-secondary-listing-early-look-needs-the-cash-more-than-most-secondary-candidates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-secondary-listings-what-to-do-with-the-adr-lessons-from-baba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-and-other-secondary-listing-index-ftse-msci-hsi-and-hscei-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-com-hk-listing-early-look-getting-the-ball-rolling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-early-to-file-but-late-to-launch-puts-it-in-a-peculiar-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-behaving-better-than-netease-so-far" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-trading-update-strong-demand-but-won-t-have-any-index-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-hk-listing-early-look-follow-the-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-relatively-bigger-than-baba-should-offer-relatively-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-doing-a-beigene-rather-than-a-baba-risk-reward-shifting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-trading-update-index-flows-to-provide-near-term-support" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-the-real-ipo-only-begins-on-the-11th-day-post-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-proposed-stock-connect-changes-might-throw-a-spanner-in-the-works" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-what-to-do-with-the-us-adr-while-waiting-for-the-hk-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-not-good-for-the-adr-should-have-put-a-price-range-to-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-neither-here-not-there-index-announcements-comparison-to-other-deals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-trading-time-to-converge-that-s-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) raised around US$2.5bn in its Hong Kong secondary listing.
I have covered the deal background in:


Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact, and

Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount.



In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.




Links to my previous notes on China ADRs secondary listing:



Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates




JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba
JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact
JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling




JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position
JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far




JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows




NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader
NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount
NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting




NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support




Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing





Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works

Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?
Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It
Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals




Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It
China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang
China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home
China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List



Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Revenue in H120 at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a> declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of 0.14 RMB (-9.5% YoY). Dali Foods declared an interim dividend of 0.075 HKD, equivalent to about 47% of net profit. </p>
<p>The company's main three product areas posted wildly divergent results in H120. Sales of <em>Household Consumption</em> items -- soy-based drinks and bread products -- held up well during the pandemic, rising 7.7% YoY. Sales of <em>Snacks</em> declined, but only by 2% YoY. But Dali's <em>Ready to Drink</em><em>Beverages</em> saw sales decline by almost 23% YoY due to intense competition in the segment. </p>
<p>All told, Dali's sales performance in H120 barely outperformed overall retail sales in China (Dali -8.7% versus -10.9% retail sales excluding autos). Certainly the pace of revenue growth will recover here in H2 as pandemic fears subside, but we see few reasons to get excited about the stock. Retain SELL and HK$4.18 target price, implying 16% downside from the closing price on September 4. </p>

Revenue in H120 at Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of 0.14 RMB (-9.5% YoY). Dali Foods declared an interim dividend of 0.075 HKD, equivalent to about 47% of net profit. 
The company's main three product areas posted wildly divergent results in H120. Sales of Household Consumption items -- soy-based drinks and bread products -- held up well during the pandemic, rising 7.7% YoY. Sales of Snacks declined, but only by 2% YoY. But Dali's Ready to DrinkBeverages saw sales decline by almost 23% YoY due to intense competition in the segment. 
All told, Dali's sales performance in H120 barely outperformed overall retail sales in China (Dali -8.7% versus -10.9% retail sales excluding autos). Certainly the pace of revenue growth will recover here in H2 as pandemic fears subside, but we see few reasons to get excited about the stock. Retain SELL and HK$4.18 target price, implying 16% downside from the closing price on September 4. 

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Story Remains Unexciting, Retain SELL

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/devi-subhakesan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1913" rel="noopener">Devi Subhakesan</a> to discuss disruption in Asia’s restaurant sector, which is currently struggling to overcome the brutal impact of COVID-19. Devi will present her findings from her Smartkarma Original, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-restaurant-sector-disrupted-opportunities-challenges-ahead-time-to-pivot-persist" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41346" rel="noopener">Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted. Opportunities/Challenges Ahead -Time to Pivot &amp; Persist</a>, which looked at companies from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jollibee-foods-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:987:1" rel="noopener">Jollibee Foods (JFC PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> China.</p>
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 9/September/2020, 5.00pm SGT/HKT.<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=87545535217" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
</h3>
<p>Watch the session here:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WFA1YZH6LSo" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
<p></p>
<p>Or listen on the go:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/5C9LN6ooWfmhu0j7vtHS0I" width="100%" height="232" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe>Devi Subhakesan is an Equity Analyst with an Asia Consumer Sector Focus. She has been part of Buy-side and Sell-side Institutions, and has covered Oil, Gas &amp; Coal, Media, Textiles, and Consumer Discretionary sectors across ASEAN, India, and North Asia.</p>

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider Devi Subhakesan to discuss disruption in Asia’s restaurant sector, which is currently struggling to overcome the brutal impact of COVID-19. Devi will present her findings from her Smartkarma Original, Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted. Opportunities/Challenges Ahead -Time to Pivot &amp; Persist, which looked at companies from Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) and Haidilao (6862 HK), to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) and Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) China.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 9/September/2020, 5.00pm SGT/HKT.

Watch the session here:


Or listen on the go:
Devi Subhakesan is an Equity Analyst with an Asia Consumer Sector Focus. She has been part of Buy-side and Sell-side Institutions, and has covered Oil, Gas &amp; Coal, Media, Textiles, and Consumer Discretionary sectors across ASEAN, India, and North Asia.

Smartkarma Webinar | Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-03/yum-china-said-to-guide-hong-kong-listing-price-at-hk-412-each?sref=SVEekGzB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China </a>has indicated a price of HK$412 per share for its secondary listing in Hong Kong implying a 5% discount to yesterday's closing price at NYSE of USD 55.9. An issue price of HKD412 implies an enterprise-to-sales value of 2X and EV/EBITDA of 12.9x based on 2021 consensus estimates (source: CapitalIQ), at a discount to industry peers <em>(See Valuation comparison below)</em>. We believe Yum China is well-positioned to recover from the ongoing industry disruptions and would see valuation rerating as the market has better visibility and conviction in its earnings recovery. This suggests a meaningful room for upside for the stock from the reported issue price of HKD412.   </p><p>In the brief note below, we update sector valuations to see how Yum China's reported offer price of HKD412 places it vs peers and discuss the steep valuation gap and potential for stock upside.</p>

Bloomberg reported that Yum China has indicated a price of HK$412 per share for its secondary listing in Hong Kong implying a 5% discount to yesterday's closing price at NYSE of USD 55.9. An issue price of HKD412 implies an enterprise-to-sales value of 2X and EV/EBITDA of 12.9x based on 2021 consensus estimates (source: CapitalIQ), at a discount to industry peers (See Valuation comparison below). We believe Yum China is well-positioned to recover from the ongoing industry disruptions and would see valuation rerating as the market has better visibility and conviction in its earnings recovery. This suggests a meaningful room for upside for the stock from the reported issue price of HKD412.   In the brief note below, we update sector valuations to see how Yum China's reported offer price of HKD412 places it vs peers and discuss the steep valuation gap and potential for stock upside.

Yum China: Reported HK Offer Price at 5% Discount to NY Closing. Room for Upside.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> has launched a $2.5 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/rickin-thakrar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1486" rel="noopener">Rickin Thakrar</a> has outlined his views on Yum China’s fundamentals and valuation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-secondary-listing-do-the-fundamentals-stack-up-post-2q20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42814" rel="noopener">Yum China Secondary Listing: Do the Fundamentals Stack up Post 2Q20 Earnings?</a>. The H shares will be priced on Friday and are scheduled for listing on 10 September.  </p><p>Like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Hong Kong will be a meaningful trading venue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a>, driving conversion demand, in our view. Notably, Alibaba’s HK freefloat shares as a percentage of HK-registered shares have risen at an increasing pace and currently stands at 55.9% (vs 11.1% at listing).</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we examine Yum China’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Yum China will likely price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. Overall, we think that Yum China pricing its H-shares around a 3.0% discount to its ADSs will be reasonable.</p></div>

Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) has launched a $2.5 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong. Rickin Thakrar has outlined his views on Yum China’s fundamentals and valuation in Yum China Secondary Listing: Do the Fundamentals Stack up Post 2Q20 Earnings?. The H shares will be priced on Friday and are scheduled for listing on 10 September.  Like Alibaba Group (BABA US) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Hong Kong will be a meaningful trading venue for Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK), driving conversion demand, in our view. Notably, Alibaba’s HK freefloat shares as a percentage of HK-registered shares have risen at an increasing pace and currently stands at 55.9% (vs 11.1% at listing).In this note, we examine Yum China’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Yum China will likely price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. Overall, we think that Yum China pricing its H-shares around a 3.0% discount to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Yum China Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)

Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue

Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its Hong Kong secondary listing. I had taken an early look at the deal in...

Sumeet Singh

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Story Remains Unexciting, Retain SELL

Revenue in H120 at Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of...

Tracking Traffic

Smartkarma Webinar | Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider Devi Subhakesan, who will discuss the topic of disruption in Asia’s restaurant...

Smartkarma Research

Yum China: Reported HK Offer Price at 5% Discount to NY Closing. Room for Upside.

Reportedly, $Yum Chi

Devi Subhakesan

Yum China Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

$yum china has launched a $2.5 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong. Rickin was outlined his views on Yum China’s fundamentals and valuation in...

Arun George

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