New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) ability to crystallise its option value and deliver on contracts continues.</li><li>The ongoing US–Iran conflict has underlined the importance of security of supply, which arguably is best delivered through increased in-country storage.</li><li>The contract and CHI’s positive ASM update lifts our earnings and dividend expectations significantly, and we increase our target price +21cps (+6.6%) to NZ$3.41.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) ability to crystallise its option value and deliver on contracts continues.The ongoing US–Iran conflict has underlined the importance of security of supply, which arguably is best delivered through increased in-country storage.The contract and CHI’s positive ASM update lifts our earnings and dividend expectations significantly, and we increase our target price +21cps (+6.6%) to NZ$3.41.

Channel Infrastructure Storing Up Diesel Security

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.</li><li>Positives include: ahead-of-schedule progress on Z Energy’s jet storage project; a nine-year extension to a private storage contract; opportunities arising from the Government’s increased diesel stockholding requirements.</li><li>CHI is well positioned to pursue M&amp;A and leverage its strategic Marsden Point land bank.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.Positives include: ahead-of-schedule progress on Z Energy’s jet storage project; a nine-year extension to a private storage contract; opportunities arising from the Government’s increased diesel stockholding requirements.CHI is well positioned to pursue M&amp;A and leverage its strategic Marsden Point land bank.

Channel Infrastructure - 1H25 Result—CHI Keeps Flowing

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.</li>
<li>The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. </li>
<li>Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. </li>
</ul>


Refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil (XOM US).
The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. 
Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only). </li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>
</li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9838:1" rel="noopener">Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only). 
This week, the highest gross spreads are Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Razer Inc (1337 HK), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)

The lowest gross spreads are CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU), Virtus Health (VRT AU), China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ), Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) 


Merger Arb Mondays - Yashili, Razer, 51Job, Uniti, Link, Sezzle, Guodian

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9838:1" rel="noopener">Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ)</a>'s Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=768E2B9BEC76822577987F21DC8BDD2F20F0A488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 25 March.</li>
<li>The Independent Advisor has concluded the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a>  is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of ZEL shareholders.</li>
<li>The spread to terms is attractive here assuming implementation in the second quarter of 2022.  </li>
</ul>



Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ)'s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 25 March.
The Independent Advisor has concluded the Offer from Ampol (ALD AU)  is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of ZEL shareholders.
The spread to terms is attractive here assuming implementation in the second quarter of 2022.  


Z Energy (ZEL NZ): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 March

New Zealand

Z Energy Ltd. markets petroleum products. The Company offers premium fuel, diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, bitumen, and lubricants. Z Energy serves airlines, trucking companies, mines, shipping companies, and vehicle fleet operators throughout New Zealand.

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Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ)

Channel Infrastructure Storing Up Diesel Security

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) ability to crystallise its option value and deliver on contracts continues. The ongoing US–Iran conflict has...

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure - 1H25 Result—CHI Keeps Flowing

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.

Forsyth Barr

Esso Thailand: Bangchak Corp's Takeunder

Without a high degree of clarity on Esso's net debt and working capital adjustments, this is an avoid for arb investors. From an equity valuation...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays - Yashili, Razer, 51Job, Uniti, Link, Sezzle, Guodian

This week, the highest gross spreads are Yashili (41.2%), Razer (19.2%), 51 Job (16.0%), Uniti Group (9.8%), Link (8.6%), Sezzle (7.0%), Guodian...

Arun George

Z Energy (ZEL NZ): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 March

Currently trading at a gross/annualised return of 3.9%/16.1%%, assuming early late May completion. Or 4.4%/13.4% with late June implementation. ...

David Blennerhassett

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