European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Couche-Tard's PLN32.00 cash offer values Żabka at approximately 10x NTM EBITDA, reflecting full standalone value rather than a discounted acquisition.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts show ROCE exceeding 23% and ROIC 18% by FY28, supporting premium valuation multiples and Couche-Tard's willingness to pay full value.</li>
<li>Irrevocable undertakings covering 57% of the share capital, manageable regulatory approvals and an implied market completion probability of 92.7% suggest the remaining spread modestly overstates execution risk.</li>
</ul>


Couche-Tard's PLN32.00 cash offer values Żabka at approximately 10x NTM EBITDA, reflecting full standalone value rather than a discounted acquisition.
Consensus forecasts show ROCE exceeding 23% and ROIC 18% by FY28, supporting premium valuation multiples and Couche-Tard's willingness to pay full value.
Irrevocable undertakings covering 57% of the share capital, manageable regulatory approvals and an implied market completion probability of 92.7% suggest the remaining spread modestly overstates execution risk.


Couche-Tard/Żabka: Full Value, Limited Premium

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with a few M&amp;A deals that could have consequences for index changes.</li>
<li>We see around three intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and four regular ADDs/DELs during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with a few M&amp;A deals that could have consequences for index changes.
We see around three intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and four regular ADDs/DELs during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Three M&A Deals Coming Up

<ul>
<li>The March 2026 index review results for the SE600 index were announced yesterday after market close.</li>
<li>There will be eleven index changes for the SE600 index. We expected nine out of eleven ADDs and seven out of eleven DELs.</li>
<li>The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of trading on 20th March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The March 2026 index review results for the SE600 index were announced yesterday after market close.
There will be eleven index changes for the SE600 index. We expected nine out of eleven ADDs and seven out of eleven DELs.
The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of trading on 20th March 2026.


Quiddity SE600 Mar26 Results: CSG ADD Confirmed; Many Index Changes

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisure-holding-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43889:1" rel="noopener">Verisure Holding (VSURE SS)</a> is forecasted to be added at a market cap of ~$19bn following its IPO on 8 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlen-energy-metals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45704:1" rel="noopener">Metlen Energy &amp; Metals (MTLN LN)</a> is expected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn due to a change of incorporation and primary listing from Greece to UK.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Vend Marketplaces ASA (VEND NO)</a> is projected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn because of the unification of its share class structure.</li>
</ul>



Verisure Holding (VSURE SS) is forecasted to be added at a market cap of ~$19bn following its IPO on 8 October.

Metlen Energy &amp; Metals (MTLN LN) is expected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn due to a change of incorporation and primary listing from Greece to UK.

Vend Marketplaces ASA (VEND NO) is projected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn because of the unification of its share class structure.


STOXX Europe600 Dec25 Forecast: VSURE, VEND & MTLN Leading Top Additions

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Zabka Group (ZAB PW)

Couche-Tard/Żabka: Full Value, Limited Premium

Couche-Tard is paying full standalone value for Żabka, not full strategic value. High returns on capital justify the valuation, while retained...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Three M&A Deals Coming Up

We see Iveco, Recordati, and Zabka triggering intra-review DELs in the SE600 before the December 2026 rebal. Currently, we see Azelis, Asmodee, and...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity SE600 Mar26 Results: CSG ADD Confirmed; Many Index Changes

The SE600 index will see eleven changes in March 2026 with a few surprises. The ADDs collectively have around US$160mn and DELs have US$220mn to...

Afridi Reyal

STOXX Europe600 Dec25 Forecast: VSURE, VEND & MTLN Leading Top Additions

VSURE or MTLN may be added ahead of the review as a replacement following KKR’s cash acquisition of Spectris (SXS), which is expected to close on 3...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Couche-Tard/Żabka: Full Value, Limited Premium

Couche-Tard is paying full standalone value for Żabka, not full strategic value. High returns on capital justify the valuation, while retained...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Three M&A Deals Coming Up

We see Iveco, Recordati, and Zabka triggering intra-review DELs in the SE600 before the December 2026 rebal. Currently, we see Azelis, Asmodee, and...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity SE600 Mar26 Results: CSG ADD Confirmed; Many Index Changes

​The SE600 index will see eleven changes in March 2026 with a few surprises. The ADDs collectively have around US$160mn and DELs have US$220mn to...

Afridi Reyal

STOXX Europe600 Dec25 Forecast: VSURE, VEND & MTLN Leading Top Additions

VSURE or MTLN may be added ahead of the review as a replacement following KKR’s cash acquisition of Spectris (SXS), which is expected to close on 3...

Dimitris Ioannidis

The SE600 index will see eleven changes in March 2026 with a few surprises. The ADDs collectively have around US$160mn and DELs have US$220mn to...