HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both generic drugs and innovative drugs are facing the problem of “shortened life cycle” in China, pushing pharmaceutical companies to optimize product mix and find some shortcut, such as license-in.</li>
<li>However, it has been more and more difficult to in-license cost-effective products, indicating that the afterwards commercialization could be hard to cover the license-in cost or make decent profits.. </li>
<li>A way out is to reshape the development path after license-in by relying on strong R&amp;D systems, so as to achieve truly valuable innovation and thus maximize the commercialization value. </li>
</ul>


Both generic drugs and innovative drugs are facing the problem of “shortened life cycle” in China, pushing pharmaceutical companies to optimize product mix and find some shortcut, such as license-in.
However, it has been more and more difficult to in-license cost-effective products, indicating that the afterwards commercialization could be hard to cover the license-in cost or make decent profits.. 
A way out is to reshape the development path after license-in by relying on strong R&amp;D systems, so as to achieve truly valuable innovation and thus maximize the commercialization value. 


A Second Thought on the License-In Mode - Dilemmas and Solutions

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.</li>
<li>The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.</li>
<li>In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.
The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.
In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

<ul>
<li>The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.</li>
<li>Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).</li>
<li>However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.</li>
</ul>


The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.
Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).
However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

Industry viewpoints:
<ul class="">
<li>China released a new policy to support couples having a third child as the population ages.</li>
<li>A joint procurement office on behalf of medical institutions in 12 provinces was formed to carry out centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables.</li>
<li>With the increasing incidence of diseases that directly cause skull defects, the skull defect repair material industry in China has developed rapidly.</li>
</ul>
Company news:
News about the updated license-in agreement and new progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25877:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>.
Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.69%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.73% over the same period of time.
Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:

China released a new policy to support couples having a third child as the population ages.
A joint procurement office on behalf of medical institutions in 12 provinces was formed to carry out centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables.
With the increasing incidence of diseases that directly cause skull defects, the skull defect repair material industry in China has developed rapidly.

Company news:
News about the updated license-in agreement and new progress on drugs of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK), and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH).
Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.69%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.73% over the same period of time.
Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

The recent fall in price of many so called “China concept shares” of US listed Chinese companies, has largely been triggered by the passing of the "Holding Foreign Company Accountability Act" (HFCAA).A flock of US listed Chinese companies have since decided to relist in HKSE due to a few reasons:<ol>
<li>The HFCAA causing conflicting compliance requirements with Chinese regulations.</li>
<li>Fear among investors of forced delisting in the US.</li>
<li>HKEX deregulation allowing more Chinese companies to be listed.</li>
<li>The valuation in HK is in sync with the U.S. stock market.</li>
<li>HK attracting more Chinese funds to operate in HKEX.</li>
</ol>

The recent fall in price of many so called “China concept shares” of US listed Chinese companies, has largely been triggered by the passing of the "Holding Foreign Company Accountability Act" (HFCAA).A flock of US listed Chinese companies have since decided to relist in HKSE due to a few reasons:
The HFCAA causing conflicting compliance requirements with Chinese regulations.
Fear among investors of forced delisting in the US.
HKEX deregulation allowing more Chinese companies to be listed.
The valuation in HK is in sync with the U.S. stock market.
HK attracting more Chinese funds to operate in HKEX.


Exit the Dragon – the Mass Exodus of US Listed Chinese Companies

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

A Second Thought on the License-In Mode - Dilemmas and Solutions

We analyzed the logic and dilemma faced by China pharmaceutical companies in terms of license-in.As it's more difficult to in-license cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

The insight mainly analyzed the relationship of drug spending with GDP growth, different logic behind China/US biotech companies and related risks...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

This insight analyzed the concerns on capital arbitrage in domestic innovative drugs, the unsatisfactory innovative drug commercial results,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.4)

This insight mainly analyzed the three-child new policy, centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables, skull defect repair...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Exit the Dragon – the Mass Exodus of US Listed Chinese Companies

Is US-China financial decoupling affecting the US stock market? What's the future of US listed Chinese companies l? How can investors in China...

Evelyn Zhang

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