Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.</li>
<li>We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.</li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK) is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.
Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.
We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.


Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;</li>
<li>Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.</li>
</ul>


NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;
Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;
Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.


Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

<ul>
<li>Since the US started sanctioning Huawei in 2017, the China tech giant has maneuvered into many new fields. This time, its HIMA (Huawei Intelligent Mobility Alliance) is showing renewed momentum;</li>
<li>China is the greatest EV market in the world. But what is being masked in the robust growth is the divergence between BEV and PHEV, and Huawei's role in PHEV;</li>
<li>We expect the trend to continue as Chery, JAC and BAIC will launch their HIMA models in 2025. Most importantly, these vendors gain share in the mid-to-high price segments.</li>
</ul>


Since the US started sanctioning Huawei in 2017, the China tech giant has maneuvered into many new fields. This time, its HIMA (Huawei Intelligent Mobility Alliance) is showing renewed momentum;
China is the greatest EV market in the world. But what is being masked in the robust growth is the divergence between BEV and PHEV, and Huawei's role in PHEV;
We expect the trend to continue as Chery, JAC and BAIC will launch their HIMA models in 2025. Most importantly, these vendors gain share in the mid-to-high price segments.


From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>GM / After reports of layoffs, GM says it’s committed to China</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-leader of scandal-plagued province pleads guilty in $113 million bribery case</li><li>Vanke /: Vanke continues slimming down with asset securitization</li></ul>

GM / After reports of layoffs, GM says it’s committed to ChinaCorruption /: Ex-leader of scandal-plagued province pleads guilty in $113 million bribery caseVanke /: Vanke continues slimming down with asset securitization

CX Daily: After Reports of Layoffs, GM Says It’s Committed to China 

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）</li>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)</li>
<li>LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）
1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)
LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

United States

ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, principally engages in commercialization and sales of electric vehicles and battery, and provision of automotive related research and development services. ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding serves customers worldwide.

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ZEEKR (ZK US)

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

Chinese EV market was driven mostly by PHEV in 2023-24 and will continue to be so in 2025. Huawei and partners are gaining share in PHEV in mid-to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: After Reports of Layoffs, GM Says It’s Committed to China

GM / After reports of layoffs, GM says it’s committed to China General Motors Co. (GM) said it remains committed to its partnership with SAIC...

Caixin Global

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

​Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

Chinese EV market was driven mostly by PHEV in 2023-24 and will continue to be so in 2025. Huawei and partners are gaining share in PHEV in mid-to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: After Reports of Layoffs, GM Says It’s Committed to China

GM / After reports of layoffs, GM says it’s committed to China General Motors Co. (GM) said it remains committed to its partnership with SAIC...

Caixin Global

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

​Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.