Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.</p>

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>1. Industry viewpoints:</strong></p><ul>
<li>An important document supporting the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been released recently.</li>
<li>The market size of cardiac pacemakers in China is expected to reach RMB28 billion in the future.</li>
<li>China's health care products market is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. </li>
</ul><p><strong>2. Company news:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">News about the progress of new drugs and strategic collaboration from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sihuan-pharmaceutical-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33:1" rel="noopener">Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH).</a></p><p><strong>3. Market review:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 6.31%, while CSI 300 increased 5.91% over the same period of time.</p><p><strong>4. Risk disclosure:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.</p>

1. Industry viewpoints:
An important document supporting the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been released recently.
The market size of cardiac pacemakers in China is expected to reach RMB28 billion in the future.
China's health care products market is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. 
2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs and strategic collaboration from Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 6.31%, while CSI 300 increased 5.91% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Chine Healthcare Weekly(Feb12)-TCM New Policy,Cardiac Pacemaker,Health Care Product,Innovent,Hengrui

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<p>On Friday after market close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>/CTCM announced that Sinopharm Hongkong, the controlling shareholder with a 32.46% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise CTCM. The announcement was in response to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sinopharm-m-a-china-tcm-exclusive-idUSKBN29W0J5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Reuters article</a> on 27 January that Sinopharm is leading a consortium to privatise CTCM. The rumoured privatisation price of HK$5.10 per share is a 26.6% premium to the unaffected price of HK$4.03 per share (26 January) and an 18.6% premium to the last close of HK$4.30 per share (27 January prior to the trading halt). </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We believe that the privatisation will be likely done through a scheme of arrangement. As a Hong Kong incorporated company, the key condition precedent is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). Overall, we think that at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal).  </p></div>

On Friday after market close, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)/CTCM announced that Sinopharm Hongkong, the controlling shareholder with a 32.46% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise CTCM. The announcement was in response to a Reuters article on 27 January that Sinopharm is leading a consortium to privatise CTCM. The rumoured privatisation price of HK$5.10 per share is a 26.6% premium to the unaffected price of HK$4.03 per share (26 January) and an 18.6% premium to the last close of HK$4.30 per share (27 January prior to the trading halt). We believe that the privatisation will be likely done through a scheme of arrangement. As a Hong Kong incorporated company, the key condition precedent is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). Overall, we think that at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal).  

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Possible Privatisation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> ("CTCM") is the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) arm of China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), one of the largest healthcare groups in China, managed directly by SASAC.</p>
<p>Shares in CTCM were suspended in afternoon trading today "<em>pursuant to Rule 13.09(2)</em>"*. </p>
<p>According to a Reuters article, Sinopharm Group Hongkong Co, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of CNPGC and CTCM’s major shareholder, is teaming up with the next two biggest stockholders, Ping An Insurance Group Co and executive director Wang Xiaochun, collectively holding a 49.4% stake, to take CTCM private.</p>
<p>The rumoured price tag is $5.10/share, a 19% premium to the last close of $4.30/share. CTCM's shares were up 6.7% ahead of the suspension.</p>
</div>
<div>As always, more below the fold.</div>
<div><hr></div>
<div>* <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1309-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Rule13.09(2)</em></a>
<ol style="list-style-type: lower-alpha;">
<li><em>Where an issuer is required to disclose inside information under the Inside Information Provisions, it must also simultaneously announce the information.</em></li>
<li><em>An issuer must simultaneously copy to the Exchange any application to the Commission for a waiver from disclosure under the Inside Information Provisions, and promptly upon being notified of the Commission's decision copy the Exchange with the Commission's decision.</em></li>
</ol>
</div>


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) ("CTCM") is the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) arm of China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), one of the largest healthcare groups in China, managed directly by SASAC.
Shares in CTCM were suspended in afternoon trading today "pursuant to Rule 13.09(2)"*. 
According to a Reuters article, Sinopharm Group Hongkong Co, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of CNPGC and CTCM’s major shareholder, is teaming up with the next two biggest stockholders, Ping An Insurance Group Co and executive director Wang Xiaochun, collectively holding a 49.4% stake, to take CTCM private.
The rumoured price tag is $5.10/share, a 19% premium to the last close of $4.30/share. CTCM's shares were up 6.7% ahead of the suspension.

As always, more below the fold.

* Rule13.09(2)

Where an issuer is required to disclose inside information under the Inside Information Provisions, it must also simultaneously announce the information.
An issuer must simultaneously copy to the Exchange any application to the Commission for a waiver from disclosure under the Inside Information Provisions, and promptly upon being notified of the Commission's decision copy the Exchange with the Commission's decision.



Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We tend to avoid turnarounds as they seldom turn;</li>
<li>But Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine can be a rare case in our opinion;</li>
<li>We see the company as being a wide-moat compounding machine, highly hopeful of delivering superior returns on capital when its business condition normalizes (sooner or later);</li>
<li>Simultaneously, the valuation of the share makes sense for alpha-seeking investors with a double-digit hurdle rate.</li>
</ul>


We tend to avoid turnarounds as they seldom turn;
But Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine can be a rare case in our opinion;
We see the company as being a wide-moat compounding machine, highly hopeful of delivering superior returns on capital when its business condition normalizes (sooner or later);
Simultaneously, the valuation of the share makes sense for alpha-seeking investors with a double-digit hurdle rate.


Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine: A Turnaround Worth A Look

China

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

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Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight.

Vermilion Research

Chine Healthcare Weekly(Feb12)-TCM New Policy,Cardiac Pacemaker,Health Care Product,Innovent,Hengrui

This article analyzed industry viewpoints include new policy about traditional Chinese medicine, cardiac pacemakers market, health care products...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Possible Privatisation

Sinopharm Hongkong, the controlling shareholder, is currently exploring a privatisation proposal. At the last close price, the downside risk is low...

Arun George

Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal

Share currently suspended, so there's nothing to be done as such. The insight is labeled bullish as an Offer appears forthcoming.

David Blennerhassett

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine: A Turnaround Worth A Look

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine can be a rare turnaround case in our opinion, thanks to its wide moat and compounding capability.

Steven Chen

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