Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a></strong> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> is looking to raise upto US$152m via a primary placement of 40m shares. There is also a concurrent CB offering for ~HKD1.3bn along with the placement.</li>
<li>The company intends to use the proceeds towards repayment of loans, capacity expansion and construction, replenishment of working capital and other general corporate purposes.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) is looking to raise upto US$152m via a primary placement of 40m shares. There is also a concurrent CB offering for ~HKD1.3bn along with the placement.
The company intends to use the proceeds towards repayment of loans, capacity expansion and construction, replenishment of working capital and other general corporate purposes.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Placement - Past Deals Record Isn’t Great but Deal Is Small

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wanguo-international-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5596:1" rel="noopener">Wanguo International Mining (3939 HK)</a> is looking to raise upto US$96m via a 2.1% stake sale, while Prominent Investment Holding is looking to pare down another 0.7%, to raise US$32m.</li>
<li>The company intends to use the proceeds towards funding the expansion of its Gold Ridge Mine in the Solomon Islands, along with other business development purposes.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Wanguo International Mining (3939 HK) is looking to raise upto US$96m via a 2.1% stake sale, while Prominent Investment Holding is looking to pare down another 0.7%, to raise US$32m.
The company intends to use the proceeds towards funding the expansion of its Gold Ridge Mine in the Solomon Islands, along with other business development purposes.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Wanguo Gold Group Placement - Industry Momentum Strong, Stock Run-Up Quite a Bit, but Deal Is Small

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The sell flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> will partially offset the buying from the passive S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index trackers.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 16th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in AIA, Sinopec, Bilibili, Jd, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 16th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in AIA, Sinopec, Bilibili, Jd, HSBC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Sinopec, Bilibili, Jd, HSBC

China

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. is a leading gold mining enterprise primarily engaged in gold exploration, mining, processing, refining, and smelting activities, offering products like Au9999 and Au9995 gold bullions. The company also has operations in copper mining and smelting. It was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Zhaoyuan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.

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Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK)

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Placement - Past Deals Record Isn’t Great but Deal Is Small

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Ltd is looking to raise up to US$152m via a primary placement of around 40m shares. There is also a concurrent CB offering...

Akshat Shah

Wanguo Gold Group Placement - Industry Momentum Strong, Stock Run-Up Quite a Bit, but Deal Is Small

Wanguo Gold Group Ltd (WGG, 3939.HK) is looking to raise upto US$96m via a 2.1% stake sale, while Prominent Investment Holding is looking to pare...

Akshat Shah

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

No constituent changes in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% and the round-trip trade is US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Sinopec, Bilibili, Jd, HSBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 16th and highlight short interest changes in AIA, Sinopec, Bilibili,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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