Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G) technology is rapidly expanding, and China is at the forefront, with the world's largest EV market.  Utilizing large onboard batteries and AI chips, NEVs could soon generate tokens.</li>
<li> China holds 60% of the global ESS market and targets 180GW of new capacity by 2027. NDRC is mandating V2G integration and targets 10+GW of flexible EV storage by 2030.</li>
<li>CATL Chairman Zeng stated in June 2026 that many EVs could be turned into "token factories" by tapping their batteries and AI chips to handle AI model inference workloads.</li>
</ul>


Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G) technology is rapidly expanding, and China is at the forefront, with the world's largest EV market.  Utilizing large onboard batteries and AI chips, NEVs could soon generate tokens.
 China holds 60% of the global ESS market and targets 180GW of new capacity by 2027. NDRC is mandating V2G integration and targets 10+GW of flexible EV storage by 2030.
CATL Chairman Zeng stated in June 2026 that many EVs could be turned into "token factories" by tapping their batteries and AI chips to handle AI model inference workloads.


<ul>
<li>China dominates the global battery market and its manufacturers are expanding production rapidly into international markets.  Players like CATL support global automakers with the most advanced battery technology.</li>
<li>Growth of renewable energy has increased demand for Energy Storage Solutions (ESS). ESS stores energy from renewable sources, stabilizes the power grid, and provides power for industrial and commercial buildings. </li>
<li>China's battery companies are benefiting from AI data center (AIDC) storage growth, which has created intense demand for specialized energy storage solutions for this sector.</li>
</ul>


China dominates the global battery market and its manufacturers are expanding production rapidly into international markets.  Players like CATL support global automakers with the most advanced battery technology.
Growth of renewable energy has increased demand for Energy Storage Solutions (ESS). ESS stores energy from renewable sources, stabilizes the power grid, and provides power for industrial and commercial buildings. 
China's battery companies are benefiting from AI data center (AIDC) storage growth, which has created intense demand for specialized energy storage solutions for this sector.


CHINA'S BATTERY SECTOR OUTLOOK: You're Either Positive or Negative!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Feb 2026 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that Feb discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Jan 2026 retail sales volume for each model, as Feb 2026 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>On the surface, China’s industrywide average discounts remained flat in Feb 2026 vs. Jan 2026 and Dec 2025 based on our calculations, as narrower discounts for German brands offset wider discounts for other brands. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Feb 2026 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that Feb discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Jan 2026 retail sales volume for each model, as Feb 2026 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.On the surface, China’s industrywide average discounts remained flat in Feb 2026 vs. Jan 2026 and Dec 2025 based on our calculations, as narrower discounts for German brands offset wider discounts for other brands. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 1Q26 carmakers’ margins under pressure amid rising discounts

<ul><li>We maintain our China PV sales volume growth forecasts for 2026 on both retail and wholesale basis after weaker-than-expected Nov and Dec sales.</li><li>We revise down our 2026 NEV sales volume slightly, as the new trade-in subsidies have stringent requirements.</li><li>We are of the view that weaker-than-expected 4Q25 sales volume may result in earnings miss for some automakers. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our China PV sales volume growth forecasts for 2026 on both retail and wholesale basis after weaker-than-expected Nov and Dec sales.We revise down our 2026 NEV sales volume slightly, as the new trade-in subsidies have stringent requirements.We are of the view that weaker-than-expected 4Q25 sales volume may result in earnings miss for some automakers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Weak 4Q25 sales may lead to earning miss

<ul><li>Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.</li><li>That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.</li><li>Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

China

Leapmotor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent electric vehicles (EVs), including sedans, SUVs, and microcars. The company also develops core EV components such as intelligent driving systems, electric drive assemblies, and battery systems. Founded in December 2015, Leapmotor is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Leapmotor (9863 HK)

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Auto - 1Q26 carmakers’ margins under pressure amid rising discounts

Note that Feb discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Jan 2026 retail sales volume for each model, as Feb 2026...

CMB International

Auto - Weak 4Q25 sales may lead to earning miss

We maintain our China PV sales volume growth forecasts for 2026 on both retail and wholesale basis after weaker-than-expected Nov and Dec sales.

CMB International

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. We project China’s PV retail sales volume to be largely flat YoY and wholesale volume to rise 2.9%...

CMB International

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