Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index</a> over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation (HOLI US)</a></strong> said in January it would suspend further evaluation of all unsolicited buyout proposals. Two proposals have reportedly since emerged.</li>
<li>According to Bloomberg, the latest tilt is from Beijing Infrastructure, the state-owned operator of Beijing's railway and subway.</li>
<li>Separately, Hollysys reported FY21 net income of US$44.3mn, a decrease of 14.6% to FY20.</li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) said in January it would suspend further evaluation of all unsolicited buyout proposals. Two proposals have reportedly since emerged.
According to Bloomberg, the latest tilt is from Beijing Infrastructure, the state-owned operator of Beijing's railway and subway.
Separately, Hollysys reported FY21 net income of US$44.3mn, a decrease of 14.6% to FY20.


Hollysys (HOLI US): Potential Suitors Didn't Get The Memo

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technolo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technology (HOLI US)</a></strong> has <a href="https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=116388898&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=HOLI&amp;companyName=Hollysys+Automation+Technologies+Ltd.&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2022-01-24&amp;CK=1357450" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it will suspend further evaluation of all unsolicited buyout proposals that the company has received.</li>
<li>Concurrently, a new buyer consortium has pitched a non-binding Offer of US$25/share. There is no SEC filing on this proposal nor does it appear on HOLI's website. </li>
<li>Shares closed ~13% down on the suspension news. Presumably, the evaluation cessation encompasses the most recent proposal.</li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation Technology (HOLI US) has announced it will suspend further evaluation of all unsolicited buyout proposals that the company has received.
Concurrently, a new buyer consortium has pitched a non-binding Offer of US$25/share. There is no SEC filing on this proposal nor does it appear on HOLI's website. 
Shares closed ~13% down on the suspension news. Presumably, the evaluation cessation encompasses the most recent proposal.


Hollysys (HOLI US) Suspends Proposal Evaluations As Fourth Bid Emerges

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technolo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technology (HOLI US)</a> has officially <a href="https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=116254323&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=HOLI&amp;companyName=Hollysys+Automation+Technologies+Ltd.&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2021-11-15&amp;CK=1357450" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acknowledged</a> a non-binding Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-longsheng-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1751:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)</a> and Loyal Valley Innovation Capital at US$24/share. </li>
<li>The replacement of Hollysys auditor (EY) and its current inability to file its annual report remain ongoing.</li>
<li>Such accounting-related issues will constrain the timing, negotiation, and entry into of any definitive acquisition agreement.</li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation Technology (HOLI US) has officially acknowledged a non-binding Offer from Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH) and Loyal Valley Innovation Capital at US$24/share. 
The replacement of Hollysys auditor (EY) and its current inability to file its annual report remain ongoing.
Such accounting-related issues will constrain the timing, negotiation, and entry into of any definitive acquisition agreement.


Hollysys (HOLI US): The Subtle Third Offer

China

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of dyes including high intensity and rapid-dying Lonsperse Dye. The Company sells its products domestically and exports worldwide.

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

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Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

There could be 50 changes to the index in December. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

Midway through the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the CSI300 Index at the December rebalance. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Hollysys (HOLI US): Potential Suitors Didn't Get The Memo

Hollysys is good value here, if you have the patience. Poor transparency of indicative proposals, the myriad of Offers that appear to have fallen...

David Blennerhassett

Hollysys (HOLI US) Suspends Proposal Evaluations As Fourth Bid Emerges

The pressure on US-listed Chinese stocks to go private or change listing venue by 2024 is still on. However, this is an Avoid. Despite numerous...

David Blennerhassett

Hollysys (HOLI US): The Subtle Third Offer

Hollysys, even without thinking about a deal, is cheap. And you have two friendly parties pitching Offers in excess of the last traded price. On...

David Blennerhassett

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