China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1.  Steel output has made small gains in April over March in advance of the upcoming building season. PTA output has increased significantly in April over March while glass has inched up incrementally.  Coal output and inventories have trended downwards given the increasingly mild weather in spring between winter and summer peak load times.  We are anticipating an uptick in the official PMI given the…

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1.  Steel output has made small gains in April over March in advance of the upcoming building season. PTA output has increased significantly in April over March while glass has inched up incrementally.  Coal output and inventories have trended downwards given the increasingly mild weather in spring between winter and summer peak load times.  We are anticipating an uptick in the official PMI given the…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April.  We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post Chinese New Year in March but nor are we witnessing continued expansion.  Given the explosion in credit, the relative lack of continued expansion should be cause for concern.

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April.  We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post Chinese New Year in March but nor are we witnessing continued expansion.  Given the explosion in credit, the relative lack of continued expansion should be cause for concern.

Chinese Flash Numbers Fail to Build on Post-New Year Bounce

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

China

Zhejiang Wanma Co., Ltd. produces mainly union insulating electric cable of polyethylene, the insulating electric cable of polyvinyl chloride, and other kinds of electric wires cable.

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Zhejiang Wanma Co Ltd A (002276 CH)

Trading China: The Little Short

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Industrial Data on PMI Release

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1. Steel output has made small gains in April over...

Christopher Balding

The Future of Chinese Steel Prices

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Flash Numbers Fail to Build on Post-New Year Bounce

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April. We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post...

Christopher Balding

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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52-week Range

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