Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th October 2025, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a></strong> announced an Offer for 88.04%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental  (MAND SP)</a></strong>, after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.</li>
<li>Matheson subsequently announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback. Both the sale of OCB and Scheme have completed. And by my calcs, ~80% of this latest buyback has completed.</li>
<li>JMH is cash rich at the parent level. Expect buybacks to be reloaded, further boosting the Keswick's controlling stake. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th October 2025, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced an Offer for 88.04%-held Mandarin Oriental  (MAND SP), after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.
Matheson subsequently announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback. Both the sale of OCB and Scheme have completed. And by my calcs, ~80% of this latest buyback has completed.
JMH is cash rich at the parent level. Expect buybacks to be reloaded, further boosting the Keswick's controlling stake. 


Jardine Matheson (JM SP): NAV & Buyback Update

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 20th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CNOOC, Alibaba, CCB, Tencent, Lingbao Gold, SMIC, CHALCO, Sinopec, HSBC, Cmoc.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 20th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CNOOC, Alibaba, CCB, Tencent, Lingbao Gold, SMIC, CHALCO, Sinopec, HSBC, Cmoc.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 20th): CNOOC, Alibaba, CCB, Tencent, Lingbao Gold, SMIC, CHALCO

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>This note analyses price behaviour around thirteen regular HSI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 32 ADD and 5 DELETE stock-events.</li>
<li>We examine the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window for systematic positioning effects and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.</li>
<li>We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (three ADDs, one DELETE) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.</li>
</ul>


This note analyses price behaviour around thirteen regular HSI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 32 ADD and 5 DELETE stock-events.
We examine the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window for systematic positioning effects and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.
We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (three ADDs, one DELETE) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.


HSI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & March '25 Analysis

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index changes for March 2026 were announced on 13 February. The final capping is based on prices from today's close.</li>
<li>Quiddity predictions had a pretty decent run across the 6 major indices we cover.</li>
<li>We see US$5.2bn of flows to buy and sell on Friday at the close. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index changes for March 2026 were announced on 13 February. The final capping is based on prices from today's close.
Quiddity predictions had a pretty decent run across the 6 major indices we cover.
We see US$5.2bn of flows to buy and sell on Friday at the close. 


[Quiddity Index] Hang Seng Family Capping Set - US$5.2bn to Trade on Friday 6 March

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

China

Zhongsheng Group is a leading national automobile dealership group in China, specializing in the sale of new and used luxury and mid-to-high-end automobiles, including brands like Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and Audi. The company also provides comprehensive after-sales services, such as repair, maintenance, spare parts, accessories, and related auto finance and insurance services. It was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, China.

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Zhongsheng (881 HK)

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): NAV & Buyback Update

I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying Matheson outright. Management have proactive with HKL and then MAND. Expect more accretion...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 20th): CNOOC, Alibaba, CCB, Tencent, Lingbao Gold, SMIC, CHALCO

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CNOOC, Alibaba, CCB, Tencent, Lingbao Gold, SMIC, CHALCO,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & March '25 Analysis

HSI March 2026 rebalance: positioning timing, reversal patterns, and flow-impact analysis across 12 completed events with actionable signals for...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Quiddity Index] Hang Seng Family Capping Set - US$5.2bn to Trade on Friday 6 March

We see US$5.2bn to trade on Friday for the 6 major indices in the Hang Seng rebalance cycle. There are, of course, hundreds of other smaller...

Travis Lundy

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

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