Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Most brands under control (Mercedes, Lexus, Toyota) are undergoing popularity downtrend by consumers in China.  </li>
<li>There will remain a loyal niche supporter base, every legacy auto does, but it also means Zhongsheng will be a smaller and niche distributor going forward. </li>
<li>Share price has plunged significantly YTD, trading at only ~5x, which we think is overdone. Yield hunters will like its ~8% DY. </li>
</ul>


Most brands under control (Mercedes, Lexus, Toyota) are undergoing popularity downtrend by consumers in China.  
There will remain a loyal niche supporter base, every legacy auto does, but it also means Zhongsheng will be a smaller and niche distributor going forward. 
Share price has plunged significantly YTD, trading at only ~5x, which we think is overdone. Yield hunters will like its ~8% DY. 


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD15.0): Challenging Outlook and Reflected in Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> at too low a price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.</li>
<li>Management continue to creep their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, and now hold a shade under 50%. </li>
</ul>


The Gulf Energy (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore AIS (ADVANC TB) at too low a price. 

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.
Management continue to creep their stake in Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and now hold a shade under 50%. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

<ul>
<li>Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  </li>
<li>The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  </li>
<li>Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. </li>
</ul>


Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  
The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  
Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. 


China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP), FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK), and Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT).


HK CEO & Director Dealings (15th Jul 2024): Zhongsheng, Jardine Matheson, FIT Hon Teng, Hon Hai

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

China

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)

Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD15.0): Challenging Outlook and Reflected in Valuation

Chinese consumers are turning away from popular car brands and impacting distributor Zhongsheng's market position. However, market has over...

Mohshin Aziz

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

HK CEO & Director Dealings (15th Jul 2024): Zhongsheng, Jardine Matheson, FIT Hon Teng, Hon Hai

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD15.0): Challenging Outlook and Reflected in Valuation

​Chinese consumers are turning away from popular car brands and impacting distributor Zhongsheng's market position. However, market has over...

Mohshin Aziz

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

​Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

HK CEO & Director Dealings (15th Jul 2024): Zhongsheng, Jardine Matheson, FIT Hon Teng, Hon Hai

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese consumers are turning away from popular car brands and impacting distributor Zhongsheng's market position. However, market has over...

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...